Abstract This paper develops a novel method for classifying oil price changes as supply or demand driven using information in asset prices. Motivated by a simple model, demand shocks are identified as returns to an index of oil producing firms which are orthogonal to unexpected changes in the VIX index, with supply shocks capturing the remaining variation in oil prices. Demand shocks are strongly positively correlated with market returns and economic output, whereas supply shocks have a strong negative correlation. The negative correlation of supply shocks and returns is strongest in industries that produce consumer goods, while the positive correlation of demand shocks is stronger for industries which use relatively large amounts of oil as an input.

ABSTRACT Focusing on the 10 most traded currencies, we provide empirical evidence regarding a significant heterogeneous exposure to global growth news shocks. We incorporate this empirical fact in a frictionless risk‐sharing model with recursive preferences, multiple countries, and multiple consumption goods whose supply features both global and local short‐ and long‐run shocks. Since news shocks are priced, heterogeneous exposure to long‐lasting global growth shocks results in a relevant reallocation of international resources and currency adjustments. Our unified framework replicates the properties of the HML‐FX and HML‐NFA carry‐trade strategies studied by Lustig, Roussanov, and Verdelhan and Della Corte, Riddiough, and Sarno.