In this paper, I develop a theory of bid–ask quotes provided by foreign exchange dealers in the inter-bank market based on their beliefs and their inventory positions. I then build an agent-based model of the inter-dealer market where dealers learn in a Bayesian manner from quotes from other dealers. Using simulations, I find that the resulting intra-day spreads and between-quote returns largely conform to the empirically observed intra-day U-shaped pattern – a feature that has not been satisfactorily explained in the literature. I also study the factors that determine this U-shape.

With extensive cross-country datasets and India firm samples, as well as our own surveys of small and medium firms, we examine the legal and business environments, financing channels, and growth patterns of different types of firms in India. Despite the English common-law origin and a British-style judicial system, Indian firms face weak investor protection in practice and poor institutions characterized by corruption and inefficiency. Alternative finance, including financing from all nonbank, nonmarket sources, and generally backed by nonlegal mechanisms, constitutes the most important form of external finance. Bank loans provide the second most important external financing source. Firms with access to bank or market finance are not associated with higher growth rates. Our results indicate that bank and market finance is not superior to alternative finance in fast-growing economies such as India.

Using changes in the MSCI Standard Country Indices for 29 countries between 1998 and 2001, we document that stock returns and volumes exhibit “index effects” in international markets similar to those detected by the studies of US stocks. The stocks added to the indices experience a sharp rise in prices after the announcement and a further rise during the period preceding the actual change, though part of the gain is lost after the actual change date. The stocks that are deleted from the indices, on the other hand, witness a steady and marked decline in their prices. Trading volumes increase significantly and remain at high levels after the change date for the added stocks. There are also considerable cross-country variations in these effects. Tests using data on various measures reflecting the different hypotheses fail to turn up any evidence in support of information effects. Our evidence appears to be more supportive of the downward sloping demand curve hypothesis. There is some evidence of price-pressure and mild evidence of liquidity effect, particularly in Japan and UK.