This article provides quantitative estimates from an econometric model of the output, price, interest rate, and exchange rate linkages among a number of countries. The linkages are examined by changing various policy variables and observing the resulting changes in the endogenous variable. The model is also used to estimate what is called the "exchanging rate effect" on inflation. One of the ways in which monetary and fiscal policies may affect a country's inflation rate is by first influencing its exchange rate, which in turn influences import prices, which in turn influence domestic prices. The model allows this exchange rate effect on inflation to be estimated.

In previous work I have developed an equation explaining votes for president in the United States that seems to have a remarkable predictive ability. In this paper the equation is updated through the 1984 election and then used to predict the 1988 election.

This article provides quantitative estimates from an econometric model of the output, price, interest rate, and exchange rate linkages among a number of countries. The linkages are examined by changing various policy variables and observing the resulting changes in the endogenous variable. The model is also used to estimate what is called the "exchanging rate effect" on inflation. One of the ways in which monetary and fiscal policies may affect a country's inflation rate is by first influencing its exchange rate, which in turn influences import prices, which in turn influence domestic prices. The model allows this exchange rate effect on inflation to be estimated.