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Option incentives, leverage, and risk-taking

Journal of Corporate Finance 2017 43, 1-18
While there is extensive research on how option incentives in executive compensation relate to risk-taking by managers, the impact of capital structure on this relationship has received little empirical attention. Extant work suggests that heightened managerial career concerns arising from financial risk and monitoring by debt holders will result in leverage dampening the relationship between managerial risk-taking and equity-linked incentives. We empirically evaluate this contention and find that firm leverage is associated with a significant weakening of the positive relationship between option incentives in flow compensation and managerial risk-taking. This result holds after accounting for the endogeneity of the firm leverage and incentive compensation decisions, and is robust across alternative measures of managerial risk-taking and to using the firm's credit ratings instead of leverage. The attenuating effect of firm leverage arises from both the long-term and short-term components of debt and is significantly stronger during the financial crisis of 2007–2009. Overall, the evidence highlights the influence of capital structure on the relationship between option incentives and managerial risk-taking.

Analyst Coverage and the Likelihood of Meeting or Beating Analyst Earnings Forecasts

Contemporary Accounting Research 2017 34(2), 871-899
This paper examines the relation between analyst coverage and whether firms meet or beat analyst earnings forecasts. We distinguish between whether a firm's reported quarterly earnings meet (i.e., equal or exceed by one cent) or beat (i.e., exceed by more than one cent) its consensus analyst earnings forecasts. We find a positive relation between analyst coverage and whether a firm meets or beats analyst forecasts. However, the more pronounced relation is that between analyst coverage and meeting analyst forecasts. Also, when we consider exogenous shocks to analyst coverage due to brokerage mergers or closures and conglomerate spinoffs, we continue to find a robust positive relation only between analyst coverage and meeting analyst forecasts. To shed light on the causal relation involved, we examine and find that greater analyst coverage is associated with a significantly larger market reaction to negative earnings surprises. We also document that firms with greater analyst coverage are more likely to guide analyst earnings forecasts downwards. Taken together, our evidence suggests that greater analyst coverage raises the pressure on managers to meet analyst earnings forecasts.