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Models and Estimation of Disequilibrium for Centrally Planned Economies

Review of Economic Studies 1982 49(1), 109
The planned level of output is an important variable in modelling Centrally Planned Economies and the present paper discusses several disequilibrium models in which the plan level is an endogenous variable. A key relationship in such a model is the plan-adjustment equation which is the counterpart of the usual price-adjustment equation employed in models of free economies. Seemingly minor differences in assumptions lead to markedly different econometric models. The coherency properties of these are studied and several likelihood functions are derived. The most complex of the models includes both endogenous plan levels and endogenous prices.

Racetrack betting and informed behavior

Journal of Financial Economics 1982 10(2), 187-194
Horse racing data permit interesting tests of attitudes toward risk. The present paper studies a new sample of racetrack results from Atlantic City, New Jersey. The questions examined are: (1) Are the market odds the best data for predicting the order of finish? (2) Do horses go off at odds that reflect their true probability of winning? (3) Is there any evidence that late bettors have better information than early bettors? It is found that market odds predict the order of finish well, but that ‘favorites’ are good bets and ‘long shots’ are poor ones. The data suggest that there does exist an ‘informed’ class of bettors and that bettors are on the whole neither risk neutral nor risk averse.