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House Price Dynamics, Optimal LTV Limits and the Liquidity Trap

Review of Economic Studies 2024 91(2), 940-971 open access
This paper studies the optimal design of a macro-prudential instrument, a loan-to-value (LTV) limit, and its implications for monetary policy in a model with nominal rigidities and financial frictions. The analysis accounts for both an effective lower bound on the nominal interest rate and an upper bound on the ability of LTV limits to stimulate credit demand. The welfare-based loss function features a role for macro-prudential policy to enhance risk-sharing. Optimal LTV limits are strongly countercyclical. In a house price boom-bust episode, the active use of LTV limits alleviates debt-deleveraging dynamics and prevents the economy from falling into a liquidity trap.

Venture capital investment in university spin-offs: Evidence from an emerging economy

Journal of Corporate Finance 2022 74, 102197 open access
From a policy perspective, university spin-offs (USOs) with venture capital (VC) investment are most promising because they are growth-oriented and contribute most prominently to economic growth. Hence, effective policies should consider the motivation of VC investment in USOs. By employing a manually collected novel database that includes all listed high-tech USOs and related VC investment activities prior to initial public offering (IPO) in China over the past three decades, we observe a close relationship between a multi-layered second-tier stock market and a vibrant VC market for USO financing. We find that USOs receive less investment from government VCs and mixed-VC syndicates and receive their investment in an earlier stage than non-USOs but that private VCs have no funding bias against USOs. The result implies the presence of crowding-in effect of government VCs in the context of USO financing. Moreover, VC investment in USOs is more pronounced in deals that have a higher initial equity commitment of academic founders and a noncontrolling strategy, highlighting the importance of delivering “value”, “commitment”, and “trust” signals in winning VC funding. Finally, as private VCs in the form of limited partnerships behave like typical pre-IPO-stage investors, they barely demonstrate any significant preference over these factors.

The Brexit Vote, Productivity Growth, and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the U.K.

Review of Economic Studies 2024 91(4), 2104-2134 open access
The U.K. economy experienced significant macroeconomic adjustments following the 2016 referendum on its withdrawal from the European Union. To understand these adjustments, this paper presents empirical facts using novel U.K. macroeconomic data and estimates a small open economy model with tradable and non-tradable sectors. We demonstrate that the referendum outcome can be interpreted as news about a future decline in productivity growth in the tradable sector. An immediate fall in the relative price of non-tradable goods induces a temporary “sweet spot” for tradable producers. Economic activity in the tradable sector expands in the short run, while the non-tradable sector contracts. Aggregate output, consumption, and investment growth decelerate.