I propose an explanation for the positive relation between R&D, future earnings, and future stock returns based on the fixed‐cost qualities of R&D. If R&D is relatively fixed over short horizons, demand shocks realized by some R&D firms will push these firms into R&D intensity levels that are suboptimal as common scale proxies—market equity, assets, and sales—respond more quickly to demand shocks than R&D. In response, R&D firms realizing negative demand shocks reduce future expenses and capital expenditures, producing higher future profitability on lower sales growth. Consistent with the fixed‐cost hypothesis, I find the higher future profits of high R&D firms are explained by cost cutting, not revenue growth. Collectively, the restructuring of cost and capital structures of the subset of high R&D firms realizing demand shocks explains the future profit and investment patterns of R&D firms, while the fixed‐cost qualities of R&D seem to explain patterns in future stock returns. My results have implications for literatures that examine how decisions on R&D investment levels affect future firm performance, growth, and stock returns.

Prior studies employ a two-period empirical model and interpret the negative association between accruals in period one and returns in period two as evidence that investors misprice the information contained in accruals. In contrast to prior studies, I employ a three-period log-linear model decomposed from a firm’s book-to-market ratio and show that investors do not misprice the information contained in accruals. My study shows that in the four-year period prior to accrual recognition, equity prices tend to be driven disproportionately by intangible returns, or returns not explained by accounting measures. Accordingly, the relation between prior period intangible returns and future period returns subsumes the relation between current period accruals and future returns. In addition, I link the accrual anomaly and the value/growth anomaly to a common economic mechanism (intangible returns) and show that a strong negative relation between external financing activities and future returns is not subsumed by the accrual anomaly.

Higher accruals are associated with lower subsequent earnings. We show this phenomenon can be explained by the way sales, profits, and working capital respond to changes in a firm's product markets. Empirically, high accruals predict high subsequent sales growth but a long-lasting drop in both profits and profitability. Accruals also predict an increase in future competition, suggesting that accruals are correlated with abnormally high—and, in equilibrium, transitory—true profitability that attracts new entrants to the industry. Overall, the predictive power of accruals is better explained by product-market effects than by measurement error in accruals or diminishing returns from investment.

We investigate the impact of the mixed attribute GAAP measurement model on accrual quality inferences. GAAP rules vary from an income statement “matching” focus to a balance sheet “fair-value” focus. Accrual properties are also affected by the business activity being measured and the activity's recurrence. Furthermore, accrual measurement is affected by managerial estimation error/manipulation. As a consequence, accruals are heterogeneous with predictably different statistical properties. We construct a dataset of more than 100,000 accrual items that Compustat aggregates into data item FOPO. We classify these accruals into 32 types over a 21-year span. We show that variation in persistence for the 32 accrual types is consistent with our predictions concerning GAAP rules. We provide a model of accruals and show that it is implausible for estimation error of reasonable magnitudes to explain this variation. Finally, we develop a measure of reporting consistency and show its impact on accrual quality inferences.