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Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View

Review of Economic Studies 1991 58(3), 495 open access
This paper examines postwar U.S. term structure data and finds that for almost any combination of maturities between one month and ten years, a high yield spread between a longer-term and a shorter-term interest rate forecasts rising shorter-term interest rates over the long term, but a declining yield on the longer-term bond over the short term. This pattern is inconsistent with the expectations theory of the term structure, but is consistent, with a model in which the spread is proportional to the value implied by the expectations theory.

Popular Attitudes Toward Free Markets: The Soviet Union and the United States Compared

American Economic Review 1991 81(3), 385-400
Random samples of the Moscow and New York populations were compared in their attitudes toward free markets by administering identical telephone interviews in the two countries in May 1990. Although the Soviet respondents were somewhat less likely to accept exchange of money as a solution to personal problems and although their attitudes toward business were less warm, we found that the Soviet and American respondents were basically similar in some very important dimensions: in their attitudes toward fairness, income inequality, and incentives and in their understanding of the working of markets.

Popular Attitudes toward Free Markets: The Soviet Union and the United States Compared

American Economic Review 1991
Random samples of the Moscow and New York populations were compared in their attitudes towards free markets by administering identical telephone interviews in the two countries in May 1990. Although the Soviet respondents were somewhat less likely to accept exchange of money as a solution to personal problems and although their attitudes toward business were less warm, the authors found that the Soviet and American respondents were basically similar in some very important dimensions: in their attitudes toward fairness, income inequality, and incentives and in their understanding of the working of markets.