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18 results

Liquidity risk and accounting information

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2011 52(2-3), 144-152 open access
This paper highlights the different avenues through which stock liquidity can potentially transcend into accounting research. Recently, Lang and Maffett show that transparency reduces firm-level liquidity uncertainty, while Ng shows that increased information quality can reduce a firm's exposure to systematic liquidity risk. These studies respectively suggest that accounting variables can affect firm valuation and cost-of-capital through their impact on different aspects of liquidity. Although some doubt may arise about the economic significance of such effects on average, further evidence from the recent financial crisis presented in this paper confirms the important role of accounting information during liquidity events.

Liquidity risk and the cross-section of hedge-fund returns☆

Journal of Financial Economics 2010 98(1), 54-71
This paper demonstrates that liquidity risk as measured by the covariation of fund returns with unexpected changes in aggregate liquidity is an important determinant in the cross-section of hedge-fund returns. The results show that funds that significantly load on liquidity risk subsequently outperform low-loading funds by about 6% annually, on average, over the period 1994–2008, while negative performance is observed during liquidity crises. The returns are independent of the liquidity a fund provides to its investors as measured by lockup and redemption notice periods, and they are also robust to commonly used hedge-fund factors, none of which carries a significant premium during the sample period. These findings highlight the importance of understanding systematic liquidity variations in the evaluation of hedge-fund performance.

Momentum and post-earnings-announcement drift anomalies: The role of liquidity risk

Journal of Financial Economics 2006 80(2), 309-349
This paper investigates the components of liquidity risk that are important for understanding asset-pricing anomalies. Firm-level liquidity is decomposed into variable and fixed price effects and estimated using intraday data for the period 1983–2001. Unexpected systematic (market-wide) variations of the variable component rather than the fixed component of liquidity are shown to be priced within the context of momentum and post-earnings-announcement drift (PEAD) portfolio returns. As the variable component is typically associated with private information [e.g., Kyle, 1985. Econometrica 53, 1315–1335], the results suggest that a substantial part of momentum and PEAD returns can be viewed as compensation for the unexpected variations in the aggregate ratio of informed traders to noise traders.

Skin in the Game versus Skimming the Game: Governance, Share Restrictions, and Insider Flows

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2015 50(6), 1293-1319
This paper advances the proposition that share restrictions engender potential conflicts of interest between fund managers and investors. Fund flows predict future fund returns for share-restricted funds, especially among funds with low levels of governance and funds managing insiders’ wealth, providing managers incentive to trade in advance of their clients. Some direct evidence for such managerial action is presented, using proprietary data on managerial investment in their own funds. The evidence suggests that private information about a fund, not necessarily its holdings, may constitute material information, with implications for proper fund governance and disclosure policy concerning managerial actions.

Flattening the Illiquidity Curve: Retail Trading During the COVID-19 Lockdown

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2021 56(7), 2356-2388
This article studies the impact of retail investors on stock liquidity during the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown in spring 2020. Retail trading exhibits a sharp increase, especially among stocks with high COVID-19–related media coverage. Retail trading attenuated the rise in illiquidity by roughly 40% but less so for high-media-attention stocks. Causality is addressed using the staggered implementation of the stay-at-home advisory across U.S. states. The results highlight that ample free time and access to financial markets facilitated by fintech innovations to trading platforms are significant determinants of retail-investor stock market participation.

Do Hedge Funds Reduce Idiosyncratic Risk?

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2014 49(4), 843-877
This paper studies the effect of hedge-fund trading on idiosyncratic risk. We hypothesize that while hedge-fund activity would often reduce idiosyncratic risk, high initial levels of idiosyncratic risk might be further amplified due to fund loss limits. Panel-regression analyses provide supporting evidence for this hypothesis. The results are robust to sample selection and are further corroborated by a natural experiment using the Lehman bankruptcy as an exogenous adverse shock to hedge-fund trading. Hedge-fund capital also explains the increased idiosyncratic volatility of high-idiosyncratic-volatility stocks as well as the decreased idiosyncratic volatility of low-idiosyncratic-volatility stocks over the past few decades.

What do measures of real-time corporate sales say about earnings surprises and post-announcement returns?

Journal of Financial Economics 2017 125(1), 143-162
We develop real-time proxies of retail corporate sales from multiple sources, including ∼50 million mobile devices. These measures contain information from both the earnings quarter (“within quarter”) and the period between the quarter-end and the earnings announcement date (“post quarter”). Our within-quarter measure is powerful in explaining quarterly sales growth, revenue surprises, and earnings surprises, generating average excess announcement returns of 3.4%. However, our post-quarter measure is related negatively to announcement returns and positively to post-announcement returns. When post-quarter private information is positive, managers, at announcement, provide pessimistic guidance and use negative language. This effect is more pronounced when, post-announcement, management insiders trade. We conclude that managers do not fully disclose their private information and instead bias their disclosures down when in possession of positive private information. The data suggest that they could be motivated in part by subsequent personal stock-trading opportunities.

Predictability and the earnings–returns relation☆

Journal of Financial Economics 2009 94(1), 87-106
This paper studies the effects of predictability on the earnings–returns relation for individual firms and for the aggregate. We demonstrate that prices better anticipate earnings growth at the aggregate level than at the firm level, which implies that random-walk models are inappropriate for gauging aggregate earnings expectations. Moreover, we show that the contemporaneous correlation of earnings growth and stock returns decreases with the ability to predict future earnings. Our results may therefore help explain the apparently conflicting recent evidence that the earnings–returns relation is negative at the aggregate level but positive at the firm level.

Seasonality in the Cross Section of Stock Returns: The International Evidence

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2010 45(5), 1133-1160
This paper studies seasonal predictability in the cross section of international stock returns. Stocks that outperform the domestic market in a particular month continue to outperform the domestic market in that same calendar month for up to 5 years. The pattern appears in Canada, Japan, and 12 European countries. Global trading strategies based on seasonal predictability outperform similar nonseasonal strategies by over 1% per month. Abnormal seasonal returns remain after controlling for size, beta, and value, using global or local risk factors. In addition, the strategies are not highly correlated across countries. This suggests they do not reflect return premiums for systematic global risk.

Pricing the commonality across alternative measures of liquidity

Journal of Financial Economics 2008 87(1), 45-72
We estimate latent factor models of liquidity, aggregated across various liquidity measures. Shocks to assets’ liquidity have a common component across measures which accounts for most of the explained variation in individual liquidity measures. We find that across-measure systematic liquidity is a priced factor while within-measure systematic liquidity does not exhibit additional pricing information. Controlling for across-measure systematic liquidity risk, there is some evidence that liquidity, as a characteristic of assets, is priced in the cross-section. Our results are robust to the inclusion of other equity characteristics and risk factors, such as market capitalization, book-to-market, and momentum.