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Mutual Fund Performance: An Empirical Decomposition into Stock‐Picking Talent, Style, Transactions Costs, and Expenses

Journal of Finance 2000 55(4), 1655-1695
We use a new database to perform a comprehensive analysis of the mutual fund industry. We find that funds hold stocks that outperform the market by 1.3 percent per year, but their net returns underperform by one percent. Of the 2.3 percent difference between these results, 0.7 percent is due to the underperformance of nonstock holdings, whereas 1.6 percent is due to expenses and transactions costs. Thus, funds pick stocks well enough to cover their costs. Also, high‐turnover funds beat the Vanguard Index 500 fund on a net return basis. Our evidence supports the value of active mutual fund management.

Mutual Fund Herding and the Impact on Stock Prices

Journal of Finance 1999 54(2), 581-622
We analyze the trading activity of the mutual fund industry from 1975 through 1994 to determine whether funds “herd” when they trade stocks and to investigate the impact of herding on stock prices. Although we find little herding by mutual funds in the average stock, we find much higher levels in trades of small stocks and in trading by growth‐oriented funds. Stocks that herds buy outperform stocks that they sell by 4 percent during the following six months; this return difference is much more pronounced among small stocks. Our results are consistent with mutual fund herding speeding the price‐adjustment process.

Mutual Fund Herding and the Impact on Stock Prices

Journal of Finance 1999 54(2), 581-622
We analyze the trading activity of the mutual fund industry from 1975 through 1994 to determine whether funds “herd” when they trade stocks and to investigate the impact of herding on stock prices. Although we find little herding by mutual funds in the average stock, we find much higher levels in trades of small stocks and in trading by growth‐oriented funds. Stocks that herds buy outperform stocks that they sell by 4 percent during the following six months; this return difference is much more pronounced among small stocks. Our results are consistent with mutual fund herding speeding the price‐adjustment process.

Managerial Rents vs. Shareholder Value in Delegated Portfolio Management: The Case of Closed-End Funds

Review of Financial Studies 2016 29(12), 3428-3470
We examine the dynamics of assets under management (AUM) and management fees at the portfolio manager level in the closed-end fund industry. We find that managers capitalize on good past performance and favorable investor perceptions about future performance, as reflected in fund premiums, through AUM expansions and fee increases. However, the penalties for poor performance or unfavorable investor perceptions are either insignificant, or substantially mitigated by manager tenure. Long tenure is generally associated with poor performance and high discounts. Our findings suggest substantial managerial power in capturing CEF rents. We also document significant diseconomies of scale at the manager level.

Forecasting Stock Returns Through an Efficient Aggregation of Mutual Fund Holdings

Review of Financial Studies 2012 25(12), 3490-3529
[We develop a stock return-predictive measure based on an efficient aggregation of the portfolio holdings of all actively managed U.S. domestic equity mutual funds, and use this model to study the source of fund managers' stock selection abilities. This "generalized inverse alpha" (GIA) approach reveals differences in the ability of managers to predict firms' future earnings from fundamental research. Notably, the GIA's return-forecasting power is not subsumed by publicly available quantitative predictors, such as momentum, value, and earnings quality, nor is it subsumed by methods shown in past research to forecast stock returns using fund holdings or trades.]

The Freedom of Information Act and the Race Toward Information Acquisition

Review of Financial Studies 2017 30(6), 2179-2228
We document a little-known source of information exploited by sophisticated institutional investors: the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA), a law that allows for the disclosure of previously unreleased information by the U.S. Government. Through FOIA requests, we identify several sophisticated institutional investors, chiefly hedge funds, that request information from the FDA. We explore the type of information commonly requested by funds and the types of firms that are targets of FDA-FOIA requests and show that FOIA requests allow these investors to generate abnormal returns. Thus, we illustrate a detailed mechanism through which costly information becomes incorporated into market prices.

Momentum Investment Strategies, Portfolio Performance, and Herding: A Study of Mutual Fund Behavior

American Economic Review 1995 85(5), 1088-1105
This study analyzes the extent to which mutual funds purchase stocks based on their past returns as well as their tendency to exhibit "herding" behavior (i.e., buying and selling the same stocks at the same time). We find that 77 percent of the mutual funds were "momentum investors," buying stocks that were past winners; however, most did not systematically sell past losers. On average, funds that invested on momentum realized significantly better performance than other funds. We also find relatively weak evidence that funds tended to buy and sell the same stocks at the same time.

Do Fund Managers Misestimate Climatic Disaster Risk

Review of Financial Studies 2020 33(3), 1146-1183
We examine whether professional money managers overreact to large climatic disasters. We find that managers within a major disaster region underweight disaster zone stocks to a much greater degree than distant managers and that this aversion to disaster zone stocks is related to a salience bias that decreases over time and distance from the disaster, rather than to superior information possessed by close managers. This overreaction can be costly to fund investors for some especially salient disasters like hurricanes and tornadoes: a long-short strategy that exploits the overreaction generates a significant DGTW-adjusted return over the following 2 years.

Forecasting Stock Returns Through an Efficient Aggregation of Mutual Fund Holdings

Review of Financial Studies 2012 25(12), 3490-3529
We develop a stock return-predictive measure based on an efficient aggregation of the portfolio holdings of all actively managed U.S. domestic equity mutual funds, and use this model to study the source of fund managers' stock-selection abilities. This generalized-inverse alpha (GIA) approach reveals differences in the ability of managers to predict firms' future earnings from fundamental research. Notably, the GIA's return-forecasting power is not subsumed by publicly available quantitative predictors, such as momentum, value, and earnings quality, nor is it subsumed by methods shown in past research to forecast stock returns using fund holdings or trades.