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Testing for the Effectiveness of Wage-Price Controls: An Application to the Carter Program

American Economic Review 2016
policies have been in effect in the United States more than half the time. The Kennedy-Johnson wage-price guideposts lasted almost six years, although they were tattered and torn by the time they were abandoned in 1967. The Nixon Administration's Economic Stabilization Program (ESP)-the only peacetime mandatory controls program in the United States-lasted four years, although the second half of the program (Phases III and IV) was a period of decontrol. The Carter Administration's Pay and Price Standards Program lasted a little more than two years, although the second year was

The Value of Crowdsourced Earnings Forecasts

Journal of Accounting Research 2016 54(4), 1077-1110
Crowdsourcing—when a task normally performed by employees is outsourced to a large network of people via an open call—is making inroads into the investment research industry. We shed light on this new phenomenon by examining the value of crowdsourced earnings forecasts. Our sample includes 51,012 forecasts provided by Estimize, an open platform that solicits and reports forecasts from over 3,000 contributors. We find that Estimize forecasts are incrementally useful in forecasting earnings and measuring the market's expectations of earnings. Our results are stronger when the number of Estimize contributors is larger, consistent with the benefits of crowdsourcing increasing with the size of the crowd. Finally, Estimize consensus revisions generate significant two‐day size‐adjusted returns. The combined evidence suggests that crowdsourced forecasts are a useful supplementary source of information in capital markets.