We show that the pattern of short-term negative serial covariances for stock returns over different return measurement intervals is consistent with the implications of inventory-based microstructure models. We develop different testable implications of these models and document supporting evidence. Our findings indicate that to a large extent the short-horizon return revearsals can be explained by dealer-inventory-related market microstructure effects. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: G14, G20.

This paper presents evidence on the long-run trends in U. S. regional specialization and localization and examines which model of regional specialization is most consistent with the data. Regional specialization in the United States rose substantially between 1860 and the turn of the twentieth century, flattened out during the interwar years, and then fell substantially and continuously since the 1930s. The analysis of the long-run trends in U. S. regional specialization and localization supports explanations based on production scale economies and the Heckscher-Ohlin model but is inconsistent with explanations based on external economies.

Linda S. McDaniel, William R. Kinney, Jr., Expectation-Formation Guidance in the Auditor's Review of Interim Financial Information, Journal of Accounting Research, Vol. 33, No. 1 (Spring, 1995), pp. 59-76

Prior studies document an insignificant effect of unrealized gains/losses (URGL) and a negative effect of realized gains/losses (SGL) on bank stock returns. We argue that these results may reflect the omission of changes in value of other net assets resulting from interest rate changes. We find that after controlling for effects of other (on-balance sheet) net assets, both URGL and SGL have significant positive effects on bank returns in normal periods. But the SGL effect is significantly lower in periods of low capital and earnings. These findings are relevant to the market value accounting debate.

We analyze how analysts' forecasts relate to investor beliefs and describe the implications of these relations for price and volume reactions to earnings surprises. We show that dispersion among forecasts does not fully capture investor uncertainty. We also show how the relations between market reactions and forecast properties differ under the alternative assumptions of exogenous and endogenous private information acquisition. Finally, the analysis suggests refined tests for volume reactions at the time of an announcement. Our results indicate that the model is useful for understanding and interpreting empirical work and developing empirical tests of market reactions to announcements.

Return models (returns regressed on scaled earnings variables) are commonly preferred to price models (stock price regressed on earnings per share). We provide a framework for choosing between these models. An economically intuitive rationale suggests that price models are better specified in that the estimated slope coefficients from price models, but not return models, are unbiased. Our empirical results confirm that price models' earnings response coefficients are less biased. However, return models have less serious econometric problems than price models. In some research contexts the combined use of both price and return models may be useful.

The main theme of David Card and Alan Krueger's book, Myth and Measurement: The New Economics of the Minimum Wage, is that the data do not support the view that minimum wages reduce employment. The most important chapter considers data for the fast food industry, where it is suggested that recent minimum wage increases may actually have increased employment, contrary to the standard theorem that labor demand curves slope down. A more reasonable view of the evidence, in this book and in many other studies going back to 1915, is that the employment effects of minimum wages are small, and difficult to detect in the noisy data available.