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Limited Investor Attention and Stock Market Misreactions to Accounting Information

The Review of Asset Pricing Studies 2011 1(1), 35-73
We provide a model in which a single psychological constraint, limited attention, explains both under- and overreaction to different earnings components. Investor neglect of earn-ings induces post-earnings announcement drift and the profit anomaly. Neglect of earnings components causes accrual and cash flow anomalies. The model offers empirical implica-tions relating the strength of earnings-related anomalies to the forecasting power of current earnings-related information for future earnings, investor attentiveness, and the volatilities of and correlation between accruals and cash flows. We also show that, owing to atten-tion costs, in equilibrium not all investors choose to attend to earnings or its components. (JEL G12, G14, M41, M43) Market reactions to earnings and earnings components present a striking puzzle. Stock prices on average underreact to earnings surprises (post-earnings an-nouncement drift), but overreact to the operating accruals component of earn-ings.1 Earnings- and accruals-related patterns of return predictability are often referred to as “anomalies, ” “under- ” and “overreaction, ” or reflecting investor “optimism, ” “pessimism, ” or “naı̈veté. ” Such labels offer little guidance as to

Overinvestment, corporate governance, and dividend initiations

Journal of Corporate Finance 2011 17(3), 710-724
Firms with low Tobin's Q and high cash flow have significantly more positive dividend initiation announcement returns than do other firms. I interpret this result as consistent with the hypothesis that reductions in the agency costs of overinvestment at firms with poor investment opportunities and ample cash flow are reflected in higher dividend initiation announcement returns. Further tests, such as examining the impact of governance metrics on initiation announcement returns following the dividend tax cut of 2003 and examining the long-run cash-retention policies of dividend-initiating firms, are consistent with this interpretation. There is also some evidence that is consistent with the cash flow signaling hypothesis, as dividend-initiating firms with low Tobin's Q and low pre-initiation cash flow experience substantial revisions in analysts' earnings forecasts and significantly positive initiation announcement returns.

The Benefits of Financial Statement Comparability

Journal of Accounting Research 2011 49(4), 895-931 open access
ABSTRACT Investors, regulators, academics, and researchers all emphasize the importance of financial statement comparability. However, an empirical construct of comparability is typically not specified. In addition, little evidence exists on the benefits of comparability to users. This study attempts to fill these gaps by developing a measure of financial statement comparability. Empirically, this measure is positively related to analyst following and forecast accuracy, and negatively related to analysts? dispersion in earnings forecasts. These results suggest that financial statement comparability lowers the cost of acquiring information, and increases the overall quantity and quality of information available to analysts about the firm.

Insuring Consumption Using Income-Linked Assets

Review of Finance 2011 15(4), 835-873 open access
Abstract We evaluate financial assets with payoffs linked to individual labor income, as conceived by Shiller (2003) and others. Using a realistically calibrated life-cycle model, we find that such assets can generate nontrivial welfare benefits, depending on the precise structure of the instrument. However, the assets we consider can only eliminate a relatively small fraction of the welfare costs of labor income risk over the life cycle. We highlight the fact that although the purpose of such assets is to smooth consumption across states of nature, one must also consider the assets' effects on households' ability to smooth consumption over time.

On the characteristics and performance of long-short, market-neutral and bear mutual funds

Journal of Banking & Finance 2011 35(7), 1762-1776
We evaluate the return performance of long-short, market-neutral and bear mutual funds using multi-factor models and a conditional CAPM that allows for time-varying risk. Differences in the bearish posture of these mutual funds result in different performance characteristics. Returns to long-short mutual funds vary with the market, returns to market-neutral mutual funds are uncorrelated with the market and returns to bear mutual funds are negatively correlated. Using the conditional CAPM we document significant changes in the market-risk exposure of the most bearish of these funds during different economic climates. We then assess the flow-performance relationship for up to 60months following up and down markets and find that investors direct flows towards market-neutral and bearish funds for several months after down markets. Market-neutral funds provide a down market hedge, but bear funds do not generate the returns that investors hope for.

Negatively Correlated Bandits

Review of Economic Studies 2011 78(2), 693-732 open access
We analyse a two-player game of strategic experimentation with two-armed bandits. Either player has to decide in continuous time whether to use a safe arm with a known pay-off or a risky arm whose expected pay-off per unit of time is initially unknown. This pay-off can be high or low and is negatively correlated across players. We characterize the set of all Markov perfect equilibria in the benchmark case where the risky arms are known to be of opposite type and construct equilibria in cut-off strategies for arbitrary negative correlation. All strategies and pay-offs are in closed form. In marked contrast to the case where both risky arms are of the same type, there always exists an equilibrium in cut-off strategies, and there always exists an equilibrium exhibiting efficient long-run patterns of learning. These results extend to a three-player game with common knowledge that exactly one risky arm is of the high pay-off type.

Effect of ferrous sulphate on haematological, biochemical and immunological parameters in neonatal calves.

Journal of Economic Literature 2011 open access
The effect of oral administration of iron on haematological, biochemical and immunological parameters in neonatal calves was studied. Ten calves from a private farm in Gharbia Governorate were used. Calves were separated from their dams immediately after birth and received colostrum during the first hours after calving and twice daily for 48 h. Thereafter, they received whole milk. Calves were divided into two equal groups. The first group was kept as controls. Calves of the second group were given ferrous sulphate at a dose of 250 mg/calf daily, beginning at one day of age; this was continued for 28 days. Three blood samples were collected from each calf in all groups at 14, 21, 28 and 35 days of age. Iron administration produced a significant increase in red blood cell count, haemoglobin, packed cell volume and blood indices, in addition to non-significant changes in total and differential leukocyte counts. The administration of iron resulted in a significant increase in serum iron, total proteins, globulins, thyroid hormones, lymphocyte stimulation index, phagocytosis, body weight and body gain. The administration of iron is suggested as routine practice in calf-producing farms due to its advantageous effects on the parameters tested.