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11 results

An arbitrage model of the term structure of interest rates

Journal of Financial Economics 1978 6(1), 33-57
A formula for the price of default-free discount bonds of all maturities is found using a Black- Scholes type of arbitrage model which is based on the assumption that a portfolio of three default-free discount bonds of distinct maturities can be managed to be a perfect substitute for any other default-free discount bond. The formula relates the price of bonds to the real rate of interest, the anticipated rate of inflation and the equilibrium prices of interest rate and inflation risks. Bond prices are shown to be the expected value of the sure nominal proceeds of the bond discounted to the present at a random discount rate. It is shown that the unbiased expectations hypothesis is in general inconsistent with this model.

Multivariate Risk Aversion, Utility Independence and Separable Utility Functions

Management Science 1975 22(1), 12-21
This paper concerns utility functions for more than one attribute. A new type of risk aversion found only in muitivariate utility functions is defined. Certain behavioral assumptions, which are necessary and sufficient for one of three forms of separable utility functions including the well-known additive form, are given. It is shown that only one of these separable forms, the “negative multiplicative form,” possesses this new type of risk aversion and in particular that the additive form does not.

Optimal consumption, portfolio and life insurance rules for an uncertain lived individual in a continuous time model

Journal of Financial Economics 1975 2(2), 187-203
A continuous time model for optimal consumption, portfolio and life insurance rules, for an investor with an arbitrary but known distribution of lifetime, is derived as a generalization of the model by Merton (1971). The classic Tobin-Markowitz separation theorem obtains with the mutual funds being identical to those obtained under the assumption of certain lifetime. The investor is found to have a ‘human capital’ component of wealth, which is independent of his preferences and risky market opportunities and represents the certainty equivalent of his future net (wage) earnings. Explicit solutions, which are linear in wealth, are found for the investor with constant relative risk aversion.

A continuous time equilibrium model of forward prices and futures prices in a multigood economy

Journal of Financial Economics 1981 9(4), 347-371
This paper is a theoretical investigation of equilibrium forward and futures prices. We construct a rational expectations model in continuous time of a multigood, identical consumer economy with constant stochastic returns to scale production. Using this model we find three main results. First, we find formulas for equilibrium forward, futures, discount bond, commodity bond and commodity option prices. Second, we show that a futures price is actually a forward price for the delivery of a random number of units of a good; the random number is the return earned from continuous reinvestment in instantaneously riskless bonds until maturity of the futures contract. Third, we find and interpret conditions under which normal backwardation or contango is found in forward or futures prices; these conditions reflect the usefulness of forward and futures contracts as consumption hedges.

A Rational Theory of the Size of Government

Journal of Political Economy 1981 89(5), 914-927
In a general equilibrium model of a labor economy, the size of government, measured by the share of income redistributed, is determined by majority rule. Voters rationally anticipate the disincentive effects of taxation on the labor-leisure choices of their fellow citizens and take the effect into account when voting. The share of earned income redistributed depends on the voting rule and on the distribution of productivity in the economy. Under majority rule, the equilibrium tax share balances the budget and pays for the voters' choices. The principal reasons for increased size of government implied by the model are extensions of the franchise that change the position of the decisive voter in the income distribution and changes in relative productivity. An increase in mean income relative to the income of the decisive voter increases the size of government.

A Rational Theory of the Size of Government

Journal of Political Economy 1981 89(5), 914-927
[In a general equilibrium model of a labor economy, the size of government, measured by the share of income redistributed, is determined by majority rule. Voters rationally anticipate the disincentive effects of taxation on the labor-leisure choices of their fellow citizens and take the effect into account when voting. The share of earned income redistributed depends on the voting rule and on the distribution of productivity in the economy. Under majority rule, the equilibrium tax share balances the budget and pays for the voters' choices. The principal reasons for increased size of government implied by the model are extensions of the franchise that change the position of the decisive voter in the income distribution and changes in relative productivity. An increase in mean income relative to the income of the decisive voter increases the size of government.]

The Role of Conditioning Information in Deducing Testable Restrictions Implied by Dynamic Asset Pricing Models

Econometrica 1987 55(3), 587
The purpose of this paper is to investigate testable implications of equilibrium asset pricing models. We derive a general representation for asset prices that displays the role of conditioning information. This representation is then used to examine restrictions implied by asset pricing models on the unconditional moments of asset payoffs and prices. In particular, we analyze the effect of information omission on the mean-variance frontier of one-period returns on portfolios of securities. Also, we deduce an information extension of equilibrium pricing functions that is useful in deriving restrictions on the unconditional moments of payoffs and prices.

How Risky Are U.S. Corporate Assets?

Journal of Finance 2023 78(1), 141-208
ABSTRACT We use market data on corporate bonds and equities to measure the value of U.S. corporate assets and their payouts to investors. In contrast to equity dividends, total corporate payouts are highly volatile, turn negative when corporations raise capital, and are acyclical. At the same time, corporate asset returns are similar to returns on equity, and both are exposed to fluctuations in economic growth. To reconcile this evidence, we argue that acyclical but volatile net repurchases mask the exposure of total payouts' cash components to economic growth risks. We develop an asset pricing framework to quantitatively illustrate this economic channel.