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The Effect of Incarceration on Mortality

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2024 106(4), 956-973 open access
This paper analyzes the effect of incarceration on mortality using administrative data from Ohio between 1992 and 2017. We first document that long-run survival is higher among the incarcerated than similar nonincarcerated defendants. Using event study designs centered around the time of release, we show why: mortality risk halves during the period of incarceration, with large reductions in murders, overdoses, and natural causes of death. However, incarceration does not increase postrelease mortality, and so the overall effect is increased longevity. These estimates reflect the high-risk environment faced by defendants when not incarcerated and suggest noncarceral policies to reduce these risks.

In-Kind Transfers as Insurance

American Economic Review 2024 114(9), 2861-2897
Households in developing countries often face variation in the prices of consumption goods. We develop a model demonstrating that in-kind transfers will provide insurance benefits against price risk if the covariance between the marginal utility of income and price is positive. Using calorie shortfalls as a proxy for marginal utility, we find that this condition holds for low-income Indian households. Expansions in India’s flagship in-kind food transfer program not only increase caloric intake but also reduce caloric sensitivity to prices. Our results contribute to ongoing debates about the optimal form of social protection programs. (JEL D12, H53, I18, I38, O12, O15)