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Zero-Sum Thinking and the Roots of US Political Differences

American Economic Review 2026 116(3), 1052-1096
We investigate the origins and implications of zero-sum thinking: the belief that gains for one individual or group tend to come at the cost of others. Using a new survey of 20,400 US residents, we measure zero-sum thinking, political preferences, policy views, and a rich array of ancestral information spanning four generations. We find that a more zero-sum mindset is strongly associated with more support for government redistribution, race- and gender-based affirmative action, and more restrictive immigration policies. Zero-sum thinking can be traced back to the experiences of both the individual and their ancestors, encompassing factors such as the degree of intergenerational upward mobility they experienced, whether they immigrated to the United States or lived in a location with more immigrants, and whether they were enslaved or lived in a location with more enslavement.

Civil War–Induced Displacement and Human Capital

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2026 141(2), 1211-1268 open access
We study the effect of conflict-induced displacement on human capital and occupational shifts, focusing on the Mozambican civil war (1977–1992), during which millions of civilians were forced to flee to the countryside, cities, and neighboring countries. Reconstructing the wartime mobility histories of the surviving population, we examine the consequences of multiple displacement trajectories in a unified framework. First, we characterize the education and sectoral employment of the universe of (non-)displaced. Second, we exploit differences in relocation trajectories among extended kin members during their schooling years. Displacement is associated with significant gains in education. Third, using a movers design, we show that minors displaced earlier to better districts experienced an increase in educational attainment. Focusing on moves during the intensification of the war and when comparing members of the same household, regional childhood exposure effects remain strong, whereas spatial sorting becomes negligible. Fourth, we jointly estimate place-based, spatial sorting, and uprootedness effects, showing that all forces are at play. Fifth, a small survey in Mozambique’s largest northern city reveals long-term effects: internally displaced people report higher education than their siblings who stayed behind but lower social capital and worse mental health relative to locals. Our findings demonstrate that displacement shocks can foster human capital accumulation, even in very low-income settings, albeit at the cost of enduring social and psychological traumas.