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Exchange Rates and Prices: Evidence from the 2015 Swiss Franc Appreciation

American Economic Review 2021 111(2), 652-686 open access
We dissect the impact of a large and sudden exchange rate appreciation on Swiss border import prices, retail prices, and consumer expenditures on domestic and imported nondurable goods, following the removal of the EUR/CHF floor in January 2015. Cross-sectional variation in border price changes by currency of invoicing carries over to consumer prices and allocations, impacting retail prices of imports and competing domestic goods, as well as import expenditures. We provide measures of the sensitivity of retail import prices to border prices and the sensitivity of import shares to relative prices, which is higher when using retail prices than border prices.

Firm Net Worth, External Finance Premia, and Monitoring Costs

Review of Finance 2026
The sensitivity of the external finance premium to firms’ net-worth-to-capital ratio is central to the strength of the financial accelerator, yet direct firm-level evidence remains scarce. We estimate this elasticity using balance sheet and income statement data for Swiss nonfinancial firms over 1998–2016. To address the endogeneity of net worth, we employ two complementary instrumental variable strategies: one based on firms’ non-operating income and the other a shift-share design that interacts predetermined exposure to financial income with aggregate dividend returns. Mapping the estimated elasticity into the costly state verification framework as implemented by Bernanke et al. (1999) yields structural monitoring costs of about one quarter of firms’ gross return on capital, with estimates ranging from 0.15 to 0.35 across specifications. Our results provide direct firm-level support for the financial accelerator mechanism and imply monitoring costs of the same order of magnitude as the benchmark calibration of Bernanke et al. (1999).