We estimate the local spillovers from research university activity in a sample of urban counties. Our approach uses the interaction between university endowment values and stock market shocks over time for identification. We find statistically significant local spillover effects from university activity. The effects are significantly larger when local universities are more research intensive or local firms are technologically close to universities. Our results suggest that the longer-term effects that universities have on their local economies may grow over time as the composition of local industries adjusts to take advantage of the heterogeneous knowledge spillovers we identify.

We estimate the long-term effect of public R&D on growth in manufacturing by analyzing new data from the Cold War–era space race. We develop a novel empirical strategy that leverages US-Soviet rivalry in space technology to isolate windfall R&D spending. Our results demonstrate that public R&D conducted by NASA contractors increased manufacturing value added, employment, and capital accumulation in space-related sectors. While migration responses were important, they were not sufficient to generate a wedge between local and national effects. The iconic moonshot R&D program had only modest economic effects for both the local and national space-related sectors.

We use the late nineteenth-century establishment of agricultural experiment stations at preexisting land-grant colleges across the United States to estimate the importance of proximity to research for productivity growth. Our analysis reveals that proximity to newly opened permanent stations affected land productivity for about 20 years and then subsequently declined until becoming largely absent today. We conclude that spatial frictions substantially reduced the rate of return to public research spending in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, but such frictions significantly diminished as extension programs, automobiles, and telephones made it easier for discoveries to reach farther farms.

In this article we test whether the introduction of social insurance has led to a reduction in private insurance purchases and precautionary saving by examining the introduction of workers' compensation. Our empirical analysis is based on the financial decisions of over 7,000 households surveyed for the 1917-19 Bureau of Labor Statistics Cost-of-Living study. We find that the presence of workers' compensation at least partially crowded out private accident insurance and led to a substantial reduction in precautionary saving. The introduction of workers' compensation caused private saving to fall by approximately 25 percent, with other factors held constant.

In this article we test whether the introduction of social insurance has led to a reduction in private insurance purchases and precautionary saving by examining the introduction of workers' compensation. Our empirical analysis is based on the financial decisions of over 7,000 households surveyed for the 1917-19 Bureau of Labor Statistics Cost-of-Living study. We find that the presence of workers' compensation at least partially crowded out private accident insurance and led to a substantial reduction in precautionary saving. The introduction of workers' compensation caused private saving to fall by approximately 25 percent, with other factors held constant.

The article examines the impact of New Deal relief programs on infant mortality, non-infant mortality, and general fertility rates in major U.S. cities between 1929 and 1940. Effects are estimated using a variety of specifications and techniques for a panel of 114 cities that reported information on relief spending between 1929 and 1940. The significant rise in relief spending during the New Deal contributed to reductions in infant mortality, suicide rates, and some other causes of death, while contributing to increases in the general fertility rate. Similar to Ruhm's (2000) findings for the modern United States, the article finds that many types of death rates were pro-cyclical during the 1930s. Estimates of the relief costs associated with saving a life (adjusted for inflation) are similar to those found in studies of modern social insurance programs.

The Great Depression offers a unique laboratory to investigate the causal impact of migration on local labor markets. We use variation in the generosity of New Deal programs and extreme weather events to instrument for migrant flows to and from U.S. cities. In-migration had little effect on the hourly earnings of existing residents. Instead, in-migration prompted some residents to move away and others to lose weeks of work or access to relief jobs. For every 10 arrivals, we estimate that 1.9 residents moved out, 2.1 were prevented from finding a relief job, and 1.9 shifted from full-time to part-time work.

[Problems with mortgage financing are widely considered to be a major cause of the recent financial meltdown. Several modern programs have been designed to mimic the Home Owners' Loan Corporation (HOLC) of the 1930s. We analyze the impact of the HOLC on the nonfarm rental and owned home markets for over 2,800 counties in the United States in the 1930s. In sparsely populated counties, where financial markets were not as well developed as in larger cities, the HOLC stimulated demand for owned housing more than it influenced supply. In rental markets the HOLC appears to have contributed to an increase in supply.]

Problems with mortgage financing are widely considered to be a major cause of the recent financial meltdown. Several modern programs have been designed to mimic the Home Owners' Loan Corporation of the 1930s. The HOLC replaced the toxic assets on the balance sheets of financial institutions by buying troubled mortgages and then refinanced the mortgages to allow home owners to avoid losing their homes. We analyze the impact of the HOLC on the nonfarm rental and owned home markets after developing a new data set for over 2800 counties in the United States. In counties with fewer than 50,000 people, where financial markets were not as well developed as in larger cities, the HOLC's financial interventions helped stimulate the demand for owned housing more than it influenced the supply. In rental markets the HOLC appears to have contributed to an increase in the supply of rental housing that was likely associated the improvement of the balance sheets of lending institutions.