We present a dynamic model that links characteristic‐based return predictability to systematic factors that determine the evolution of firm fundamentals. In the model, an economy‐wide disruption process reallocates profits from existing businesses to new projects and thus generates a source of systematic risk for portfolios of firms sorted on value, profitability, and asset growth. If investors are overconfident about their ability to evaluate the disruption climate, these characteristic‐sorted portfolios exhibit persistent mispricing. The model generates predictions about the conditional predictability of characteristic‐sorted portfolio returns and illustrates how return persistence increases the likelihood of observing characteristic‐based anomalies.

Institutional investors tend to accumulate the shares of firms that announce acquisitions. The tendency to accumulate shares is stronger when the acquirer discloses synergy forecasts, and it is especially strong when the disclosed synergies are higher. This evidence is consistent with the idea that institutional investors are attracted to situations where their superior access to management and analysts provides an information advantage. Indeed, this tendency to accumulate information sensitive shares is especially strong for hedge funds, which tend to have the greatest information advantage. Moreover, stock prices respond favorably in the quarter following the acquisition announcement when higher institutional holdings are revealed.