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Takeover vulnerability and the behavior of short-term stock returns

Journal of Corporate Finance 2013 22, 66-82 open access
This paper proposes and tests the hypothesis that takeover vulnerability contributes to short-term price reversal by motivating investors to trade speculatively and also by making investors demand immediacy in their trades. That is, takeover vulnerability is hypothesized to amplify two channels of short-term price reversal, namely, overreaction and price concession. Using several different measures of takeover vulnerability, we find that takeover vulnerability is positively related to price reversal at daily frequencies. We also find that their positive relation is more pronounced when the stock is illiquid or when it is costly to arbitrage, a finding that is consistent with the notion that the observed price reversal is driven by the earlier price concession or overreaction. While unable to determine the exact relative importance between the two channels, we conduct further analysis showing that each channel plays an independent role. Finally, we find no relation between takeover vulnerability and price reversal at the portfolio level, which means that the price reversal observed in individual stock returns is driven by a firm-specific component.

Debt restructuring through equity issues

Journal of Banking & Finance 2019 106, 341-356
This paper examines whether new equity may be issued to recapitalize existing assets in financially distressed firms. Using a sample of 3,184 follow-on primary common stock issues offered by Korean publicly traded firms from 2000–2013, we find that more than one-third of the equities are issued to creditors in direct exchange for debt. We also determine that equity issuers are in severe financial distress prior to the issue and are more likely to experience a subsequent change in control. The proceeds are used more to replace existing debt than to increase R&D. These findings suggest that equity issues in emerging markets may be used primarily to recapitalize existing assets through debt restructuring or control transfers rather than to finance growth options.

Do individual short-sellers make money? Evidence from Korea

Journal of Banking & Finance 2017 79, 159-172
We use a proprietary trade- and account-level dataset of short sales to investigate the profitability of individual investors short-selling in the Korean stock market from August 1, 2007, to May 31, 2010. Using actual data on short-covering transactions, we find that the average profit is 26,810 Korean won (roughly USD 24.4) per trade per hour, and about 44% of shorted trades are covered within a day. We also find that the profitability of short-selling decreases as the hours-to-cover increases. Account-level analyses show that investors who sell short more firms make higher profits than those who sell short fewer firms and that the profitability of short-selling is persistent. We attribute the profitability to short-sellers’ ability to exploit short-run price reversals and information processing skills.