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How Does the Spirit of Capitalism Affect Stock Market Prices?

Review of Financial Studies 2001 14(4), 1215-1232
Bakshi and Chen (1996b) suggest that the spirit of capitalism affects stock prices by increasing society's aversion to risk. In this article, I show that the way in which the spirit of capitalism impinges upon asset prices depends on the interaction of impatience, willingness to substitute over time, and ordinal preferences between consumption and status, in addition to risk aversion. I develop a general model that charts the channels through which the spirit of capitalism affects asset prices. An increase in the capitalist spirit may increase or decrease risk aversion, and may actually decrease the prices of risky assets.

A Theory of Compensation and Personnel Policy in Hierarchical Organizations with Application to the United States Military

Journal of Labor Economics 2001 19(3), 523-562
A large literature attempts to explain compensation and personnel policies in large organizations. Three features of the U.S. military system—flat rank spreads in pay, a relatively generous pension, and heavy reliance on up‐or‐out promotions—are at variance with common practices in large civilian organizations. This article develops a model of individual decision making in a large, hierarchical organization and uses the model to explain these apparent puzzles. The lack of lateral entry and heterogeneity in entrants’ abilities and preferences for military service play key roles in the observed policies.

Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2001 116(1), 261-292
Theoretical models predict that overconfident investors trade excessively. We test this prediction by partitioning investors on gender. Psychological research demonstrates that, in areas such as finance, men are more overconfident than women. Thus, theory predicts that men will trade more excessively than women. Using account data for over 35,000 households from a large discount brokerage, we analyze the common stock investments of men and women from February 1991 through January 1997. We document that men trade 45 percent more than women. Trading reduces men's net returns by 2.65 percentage points a year as opposed to 1.72 percentage points for women.

Choice and Procrastination

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2001 116(1), 121-160
Recent models of procrastination due to self-control problems assume that a procrastinator considers just one option and is unaware of her self-control problems. We develop a model where a person chooses from a menu of options and is partially aware of her self-control problems. This menu model replicates earlier results and generates new ones. A person might forgo completing an attractive option because she plans to complete a more attractive but never-to-be-completed option. Hence, providing a nonprocrastinator additional options can induce procrastination, and a person may procrastinate worse pursuing important goals than unimportant ones.

The distribution of realized stock return volatility

Journal of Financial Economics 2001 61(1), 43-76
We examine “realized” daily equity return volatilities and correlations obtained from high-frequency intraday transaction prices on individual stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We find that the unconditional distributions of realized variances and covariances are highly right-skewed, while the realized logarithmic standard deviations and correlations are approximately Gaussian, as are the distributions of the returns scaled by realized standard deviations. Realized volatilities and correlations show strong temporal dependence and appear to be well described by long-memory processes. Finally, there is strong evidence that realized volatilities and correlations move together in a manner broadly consistent with latent factor structure.

Welfare, the Earned Income Tax Credit, and the Labor Supply of Single Mothers

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2001 116(3), 1063-1114
During 1984–1996, welfare and tax policy were changed to encourage work by single mothers. The Earned Income Tax Credit was expanded, welfare benefits were cut, welfare time limits were added, and welfare cases were terminated. Medicaid for the working poor was expanded, as were training programs and child care. During this same time period there were unprecedented increases in the employment and hours of single mothers. We show that a large share of the increase in work by single mothers can be attributed to the EITC and other tax changes, with smaller shares for welfare benefit cuts, welfare waivers, training programs and child care programs.

How Does the Spirit of Capitalism Affect Stock Market Prices?

Review of Financial Studies 2001 14(4), 1215-1232
Bakshi and Chen (1996) suggest that the spirit of capitalism affects stock prices by increasing society's aversion to risk. In this article, I show that the way in which the spirit of capitalism impinges upon asset prices depends on the interaction of impatience, willingness to substitute over time, and ordinal preferences between consumption and status, in addition to risk aversion. I develop a general model that charts the channels through which the spirit of capitalism affects asset prices. An increase in the capitalist spirit may increase or decrease risk aversion, and may actually decrease the prices of risky assets. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

The Personal Discount Rate: Evidence from Military Downsizing Programs

American Economic Review 2001 91(1), 33-53
The military drawdown program of the early 1990's provides an opportunity to obtain estimates of personal discount rates based on large numbers of people making real choices involving large sums. The program offered over 65,000 separatees the choice between an annuity and a lump-sum payment. Despite break-even discount rates exceeding 17 percent, most of the separatees selected the lump sum—saving taxpayers $1.7 billion in separation costs. Estimates of discount rates range from 0 to over 30 percent and vary with education, age, race, sex, number of dependents, ability test score, and the size of payment.