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Lack of Anonymity and the Inference from Order Flow

Review of Financial Studies 2012 25(5), 1414-1456
[This article investigates the information content of signals about the identity of investors and their role in price formation. Whereas we document that investors use multiple brokers, broker identity is nevertheless a powerful signal about the identity of investors who initiate trades. The market also correctly processes this signal: the permanent price impact of orders coming from different brokers fits the information profile of the investors associated with these brokers. Our results suggest that an increase in the degree of anonymity may render order flow less informative, which could explain why the literature has documented liquidity improvements in exchanges that reduce transparency.]

Terrorism and Patriotism: On the Earnings of US Veterans following September 11, 2001

American Economic Review 2012 102(3), 261-266
Using data from the 2000 census and the 2001-08 American Community Surveys, this paper examines the impact of 9/11 on the earnings of US veteran men. Our hypothesis is that the surge in patriotism after 9/11 improved their relative earnings, but this earnings effect was short-lived. In addition, we further consider whether this effect was equally felt across race/ethnicity and along regional dimensions. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find a significant short-term improvement in the relative earnings of US veteran men following 9/11. However, additional analyses suggest that this earnings effect did not evenly occur across demographic and geographic dimensions.

Lack of Anonymity and the Inference from Order Flow

Review of Financial Studies 2012 25(5), 1414-1456
This article investigates the information content of signals about the identity of investors and their role in price formation. Whereas we document that investors use multiple brokers, broker identity is nevertheless a powerful signal about the identity of investors who initiate trades. The market also correctly processes this signal: the permanent price impact of orders coming from different brokers fits the information profile of the investors associated with these brokers. Our results suggest that an increase in the degree of anonymity may render order flow less informative, which could explain why the literature has documented liquidity improvements in exchanges that reduce transparency.

Downside risk aversion, fixed-income exposure, and the value premium puzzle

Journal of Banking & Finance 2012 36(12), 3382-3398
The value premium is relatively small for investors with a material fixed-income exposure, such as insurance companies and pension funds, especially when they are downside-risk-averse. Value stocks are less attractive to these investors because they offer a relatively poor hedge against poor bond returns. This result arises for plausible, medium-term evaluation horizons of around one year. Our findings cast doubt on the practical relevance of the value premium for these investors and reiterate the importance of the choice of the relevant test portfolio, risk measure and investment horizon in empirical tests of market portfolio efficiency.

Risk Aversion and the Labor Margin in Dynamic Equilibrium Models

American Economic Review 2012 102(4), 1663-1691
The household's labor margin has a substantial effect on risk aversion, and hence asset prices, in dynamic equilibrium models even when utility is additively separable between consumption and labor. This paper derives simple, closed-form expressions for risk aversion that take into account the household's labor margin. Ignoring this margin can dramatically overstate the household's true aversion to risk. Risk premia on assets priced with the stochastic discount factor increase essentially linearly with risk aversion, so measuring risk aversion correctly is crucial for asset pricing in the model.

Fiscal Policies and Asset Prices

Review of Financial Studies 2012 25(9), 2635-2672
[The surge in public debt triggered by the financial crisis has raised uncertainty about future tax pressure and economic activity. We examine the asset pricing effects of fiscal policies in a production-based general equilibrium model in which taxation affects corporate decisions by: (1) distorting profits and investment; (2) reducing the cost of debt through a tax shield; and (3) depressing productivity growth. In settings with recursive preferences, these three tax-based channels generate sizable risk premia, making tax uncertainty a first-order concern. We document further that corporate tax smoothing can substantially alter the effects of public expenditure shocks.]