Between 1950 and 1970 the labor force participation rate of southern black males aged 16-19 declined by 27 percentage points. This decline has been attributed to two demand-side shocks: the mechanization of cotton agriculture in the 1950s and extensions in the coverage of the federal minimum wage in the 1960s. We show, however, that participation rates of southern black teens fell continuously between 1900 and 1950. The proximate causes of the pre-1950 decline in black teen participation were increases in school enrollment rates and decreases in labor force participation by teens enrolled in school. Because the underlying causes of both effects had not run their course by mid-century, we conclude that about half of the post-1950 decline in black teen participation in the South would have occurred even if cotton agriculture had not mechanized in the 1950s or coverage of the minimum wage had not been extended in the 1960s.

This paper describes the progress, eight years after matriculating, of 586 individuals who entered one of 27 economics Ph.D. programs in fall 2002. By October 2010, 59 percent of the fall 2002 entering cohort had earned a Ph.D. in economics at the university where they initially matriculated, 37 percent had dropped out, and 4 percent were still writing their dissertations.We examine student outcomes by Ph.D. program tier and investigate factors associated with completion and time to degree. We document and describe the rise in median time to degree from 5.0 to 5.6 years during the period 1996–2010.

Although the median time-to-degree for economics PhDs was near 5.5 years in 2002, and appears to be rising (Stock and Siegfried 2006), some students can and do earn the degree in under five years. Of 586 individuals who began PhD study in economics in 2002, 27 percent had a diploma they could display on their office wall by fall 2007. Many economics PhD programs advertise that it normally takes five years to earn the degree. Some programs encourage completion by limiting financial aid to five years. Students who take more than five years incur high opportunity costs of remaining in school, as their Completing an eConomiCs pHD in Five Years: let tHe Data (literallY) speak For tHemselves †

Information about 586 individuals who matriculated into 27 economics Ph.D. programs in Fall 2002 is used to estimate first and second year attrition rates. After two years, 26.5 percent of the initial cohort had left, equally divided between the first and second years. Attrition varies widely across individual programs. It is lower among the most highly rated 15 programs, for students with higher verbal and quantitative GRE scores, and for those on a research assistantship. Poor academic performance is the most cited reason for withdrawal. About 15 percent transfer to other economics programs because they are dissatisfied with some aspect of the particular program where they first enrolled. (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Matriculation in U.S. Economics Ph.D. Programs: How Many Accepted Americans Do Not Enroll? by T. Aldrich Finegan, Wendy A. Stock and John J. Siegfried. Published in volume 96, issue 2, pages 453-457 of American Economic Review, May 2006