We propose an econometrically logical approach that distinguishes intentional from inadvertent smoothing of hedge fund return. Other than the hedge fund return (Y) we introduce an explanatory variable: a market portfolio of hedge fund returns (X). By connecting X and Y, some critical parameters are found to be effectively related to testing the two types of return smoothing. Using those parameters, we develop distinct desmoothing algorithms against intentional and inadvertent smoothing. Our empirical results show that although intentional smoothing is partly responsible for hedge fund smoothing and is done more consistently than inadvertent smoothing, return smoothing is mainly caused by the nature of underlying assets.

This study focuses on dynamic changes in survival probabilities over the lifetimes of hedge funds. To model such probabilities, a mixed Cox proportional hazards (CPH) model-specifically, a survival/hazard model with time-varying covariates and fixed covariates- is employed. Resulting dynamic survival probabilities show that the mixed CPH model provides significantly higher accuracy in predicting hedge fund failure than other models in the literature, including fixed covariate CPH models and discrete logit models. Our results are useful to investors and regulators of hedge funds in crisis-prone financial markets.