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Internet downturn: finding valuation factors in Spring 2000

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2003 34(1-3), 189-236
During Spring 2000, the Internet Stock Index declined 45%. Using a sample of internet firms, this paper investigates whether this decline was associated with new disclosures, such as earnings, analyst forecast revisions, and web-traffic measures, or to a “reassessment” by investors of pre-existing information. We find only modest evidence that the decline was associated with new disclosures. However, returns and post-decline stock prices are significantly explained by 1999 annual report data. When earnings are decomposed into gross profit and various expenses, traditional financial information contributes significantly more in explaining the cross-sectional returns and price levels than non-financial information.

A note on analysts’ earnings forecast errors distribution

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2003 36(1-3), 147-164
Abarbanell and Lehavy provide evidence that analysts’ forecast errors are not normally distributed exhibiting a high occurrence of extreme negative forecast errors (left-tail asymmetry) and a high occurrence of small positive forecast errors (middle asymmetry). This is important for researchers who rely on techniques that are sensitive to the distributional assumptions of analysts’ forecast errors. Many of the conclusions drawn by Abarbanell and Lehavy, however, are based on visual impressions (as opposed to formal empirical tests) or based on methods that are very sensitive to the empirical methods used (e.g., whether the serial correlation of forecast errors is caused by the left-tail asymmetry).