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Rational Expectations, Econometric Exogeneity, and Consumption

Journal of Political Economy 1978 86(4), 673-700
Estimates of a rational expectations version of Friedman's time-series consumption model are obtained by imposing the pertinent restrictions across the stochastic processes for consumption and income. A likelihood ratio test is used to test the adequacy of three joint hypotheses: namely, Friedman's model, rational expectations, and some arbitrary conditions on the disturbance process in the consumption function. The paper treats both the cases in which income is econometrically exogenous with respect to consumption and those in which it is not. The macroeconomics of this exogeneity condition are briefly discussed.

Estimation of Dynamic Labor Demand Schedules under Rational Expectations

Journal of Political Economy 1978 86(6), 1009-1044
A dynamic linear demand schedule for labor is estimated and tested. The hypothesis of rational expectations and assumptions about the orders of the Markov processes governing technology impose overidentifying restrictions on a vector autoregression for straight-time employment, overtime employment, and the real wage. The model is estimated by the full-information maximum-likelihood method. The model is used as a vehicle for reexamining some of the paradoxical cyclical behavior of real wages described in the famous Dunlop-Tarshis-Keynes exchange.

Estimation of Dynamic Labor Demand Schedules under Rational Expectations

Journal of Political Economy 1978 86(6), 1009-1044 open access
A dynamic linear demand schedule for labor is estimated and tested. The hypothesis of rational expectations and assumptions about the orders of the Markov processes governing technology impose over-identifying restrictions on a vector autoregression for straight-time employment, overtime employment, and the real wage. The model is estimated by the full information maximum likelihood method. The model is used as a vehicle for re-examining some of the paradoxical cyclical behavior of real wages described in the famous Dunlop-Tarshis-Keynes exchange.

Rational Expectations, Econometric Exogeneity, and Consumption

Journal of Political Economy 1978 86(4), 673-700
Estimates of a rational expectations version of Friedman's time-series consumption model are obtained by imposing the pertinent restrictions across the stochastic processes for consumption and income. A likelihood ratio test is used to test the adequacy of three joint hypotheses: namely, Friedman's model, rational expectations, and some arbitrary conditions on the disturbance process in the consumption function. The paper treats both the cases in which income is econometrically exogenous with respect to consumption and those in which it is not. The macroeconomics of this exogeneity condition are briefly discussed.