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Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money: Breakdowns and Revivals

American Economic Review 2011 101(1), 109-128
By extending his data, we document the instability of low-frequency regression coefficients that Lucas (1980) used to express the quantity theory of money. We impute the differences in these regression coefficients to differences in monetary policies across periods. A DSGE model estimated over a subsample like Lucas's implies values of the regression coefficients that confirm Lucas's results for his sample period. But perturbing monetary policy rule parameters away from the values estimated over Lucas's subsample alters the regression coefficients in ways that reproduce their instability over our longer sample. (JEL C51, E23, E31, E43, E51, E52)

A Labor Supply Elasticity Accord?

American Economic Review 2011 101(3), 487-491
A dispute about the size of the aggregate labor supply elasticity has been fortified by a contentious aggregation theory used by real business cycle theorists. The replacement of that aggregation theory with one more congenial to microeconomic observations opens possibilities for an accord about the aggregate labor supply elasticity. The new aggregation theory drops features to which empirical microeconomists objected and replaces them with life-cycle choices. Whether the new aggregation theory ultimately indicates a small or large macro labor supply elasticity will depend on how shocks and government institutions interact to put workers at interior solutions for career length.