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Firm-Level Uncertainty and the Transmission of Monetary Policy

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2026 108(3), 807-816
We show that firms that face higher uncertainty adjust their investment less in response to monetary policy shocks. We find corroborating evidence of this differential effect from firm-level stock returns on FOMC announcement days. Our results are consistent with a real options (or wait-and-see) channel whereby higher uncertainty dampens the response to changes in business conditions. Consistent with this mechanism, the dampening effect is stronger for firms that face higher reversibility.