We develop an estimator for publication bias-adjusted returns and apply it to 156 published long-short portfolios. Our adjustment uses only in-sample data and provides sharper inferences than out-of-sample tests. Bias-adjusted returns are only 12.3% smaller than in-sample returns with a standard error of 1.7 percentage points. The small bias comes from the dispersion of returns across predictors, which is too large to be explained by data-mined noise. The bias is much smaller than post-publication decay (p-value ¡.0001), suggesting mispricing is important. Our results offer a different perspective about recent papers that find most published predictors are likely false.

This paper investigates employment effects of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing policies (QE) via a bank lending channel. We find that banks with higher mortgage-backed securities holdings refinanced relatively more mortgages after the first round of QE, which increased local consumption and employment in the nontradable goods sector. In contrast, banks increased lending to firms and home purchase mortgage origination after the third round of QE, which led to a sizable increase in overall employment. Our findings are supported by new confidential loan-level data that show firms with stronger ties to affected banks increased employment and capital investment more during QE3.

Using confidential loan officer survey data on lending standards and internal risk ratings on loans, we document an effect of large-scale asset purchase programs (LSAPs) on lending standards and risk-taking. We exploit cross-sectional variation in banks’ holdings of mortgage-backed securities to show that the first and third round of quantitative easing (QE1 and QE3) significantly lowered lending standards and increased loan risk characteristics. The magnitude of the effects is about the same in QE1 and QE3, and is comparable to the effect of a one percentage point decrease in the Fed funds target rate.

This paper studies how a large increase in the price level is transmitted to the real economy through firm balance sheets. Using newly digitized macro- and micro-level data from the German inflation of 1919–1923, we show inflation led to a large reduction in real debt burdens and bankruptcies. Firms with higher nominal liabilities at the onset of inflation experienced a larger decline in interest expenses, a relative increase in their equity values, and higher employment during the inflation. The results are consistent with real effects of a debt-inflation channel that operates even when prices and wages are flexible.