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Taxation with a Grain of Salt: The Long-Term Effect of Extractive Fiscal Institutions on Development

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2025
This paper exploits the historical system of salt taxation in France to study the impact of extractive taxes on long-term economic development. Salt tax rates exhibited significant spatial variation, leading to discontinuous jumps in salt prices. Adopting a spatial regressiondiscontinuity design, we estimate the causal effect of the tax using original historical data. We extract geo-localized individual-level information on almost 70 million individuals living near tax borders between 1400 and 1900. These exogenous rate differentials had large effects, as areas burdened by lower rates exhibit higher economic development. These effects emerged after the tax’s introduction and persisted post-abrogation to the present day.

The Effect of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic on Income Inequality: Evidence from Italy

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2022 104(1), 187-203
We estimate the effect of the 1918 influenza pandemic on income inequality in Italian municipalities. Our identification strategy exploits the exogenous diffusion of influenza across municipalities due to the presence of infected soldiers on leave from World War I operations. The measures of income inequality come from newly digitized historical administrative records on taxpayer incomes. We show that in the short and medium run, income inequality is higher in municipalities more afflicted by the pandemic. The effect is mostly explained by an increase in the share of income held by the rich to the detriment of the other strata of the population.