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Overconfident individual day traders: Evidence from the Taiwan futures market

Journal of Banking & Finance 2013 37(9), 3548-3561 open access
A specific day-trading policy in Taiwan futures market allows an investigation of the performance of day traders. Since October 2007, investors who characterize themselves as “day traders” by closing their day-trade positions on the same day enjoy a 50% reduction in the initial margin. Because we can identify day traders ex ante, we have a laboratory to explore trading behavior without the contamination of potential behavioral biases. Our results show that the 3470 individual day traders in the sample incur on average a significant loss of 61,500 (26,700) New Taiwan dollars after (before) transaction costs over October 2007–September 2008. This implies that day traders are not only overconfident about the accuracy of their information but also biased in their interpretations of information. We also find that excessive trading is hazardous only to the overconfident losers, but not to the winners. Last, we provide evidence that more experienced individual investors exhibit more aggressive day trading behavior, although they do not learn their types or gain superior trading skills that could mitigate their losses.

How the 52-Week High and Low Affect Option-Implied Volatilities and Stock Return Moments

Review of Finance 2013 17(1), 369-401 open access
Abstract We provide a new perspective on option and stock price behavior around 52-week highs and lows. We analyze whether option-implied volatilities (IVs) change when stock prices approach or break through their 52-week high or low. We also study the effects of highs and lows on a stock’s beta and return volatility. We find that IVs and stock betas decrease when approaching a high or low, and that volatilities increase after breakthroughs. The effects are economically large and significant. The approach results can be explained by the anchoring theory. The breakthrough results are consistent with anchoring and the investor attention hypothesis.