We document a novel pattern that campaign goal amounts set by entrepreneurs on Kickstarter exhibit clear clustering at round numbers. We propose that the round number heuristic, a tendency to adopt round numbers as cognitive shortcuts when facing complicated and uncertain situations, may explain the clustering pattern and predict campaign outcomes. Based on 162,863 campaigns between 2009 and 2017, we find a negative relation between the use of round goal amounts and the likelihood of campaign success. Our findings suggest that setting a round number goal conveys useful information about entrepreneur quality that could be used by campaign backers or platforms.

We find that analysts are more likely to downgrade stocks when prices approach the 52-week high. The results are stronger for stocks with higher information asymmetry but moderated by analysts' reputation, work experience, and educational background. We also find a strategy that shorts stocks with recommendation downgrades is less profitable for the downgrades near 52-week high than for other downgrades. Moreover, these downgraded firms with prices near 52-week high subsequently experience relatively less negative earnings forecast revisions. These results suggest that these downgrade decisions are less likely to be information-driven and consistent with our anchoring interpretation.

We provide a psychological explanation for the delayed price response to news about economically linked firms. We show that the return predictability of economically linked firms depends on the nearness to the 52-week high stock price. The interaction between news about economically linked firms and the nearness to the 52-week high can partially explain the underreaction to news about customers, geographic neighbors, industry peers, or foreign industries. We also find that analysts react to news about economically linked firms but the 52-week high effect reduces such reactions, providing direct evidence that the 52-week high affects the belief-updating process.

In this article, we use volatility surface data from options contracts to document a strong, robust, and positive cross-sectional relation between risk-neutral skewness (RNS) and subsequent stock returns. The differential return between high- and low-RNS stocks amounts to 0.17% per week. Preannouncement RNS is positively related to earnings announcement returns, and the positive RNS–return relation is more pronounced for other nonscheduled news releases. This suggests that it is informed trading that drives the positive relation between RNS and subsequent stock returns. We also find that RNS contains incremental information beyond trading signals captured by option-implied volatility and volume.