Consumers' Expenditures in War and Transition
THE war distorted the pattern and volume of consumers' expenditures. Output of durable goods and services, and even of some nondurable goods, was held down by various kinds of war-imposed restrictions; and the spill-over of surplus income into nondurables only in part offset these forced reductions of consumers' expenditures from the larger totals consumers would have desired to realize at war-time levels of income. In consequence a huge volume of liquid savings has been accumulated by consumers. In times consumption is a predictable factor in the economy, determined within narrow limits by the level of disposable income and the total number in the civilian population. In the transition period now beginning, these relationships will again become effective, and this will tend after the initial period in which supplies are still restricted to raise consumers' expenditures above recent levels, even though disposable income declines and remains below its war-inflated volume. In addition, the spending of accumulated war-time savings will tend to raise consumption outlays above normal in the postwar period. The tremendous volume of savings now on hand is largely in liquid form; and the spending of even a fraction of these savings will assure a high level of postwar purchases, especially for the durable goods foregone during the war years. These savings will also tend to support the economy in the event of unemployment; the lower the level of current income, the more rapidly will savings have to be drawn upon for the maintenance of living standards. Chart i shows consumers' expenditures since I9IO and the trends for the remainder of the decade as determined by analysis of the above and other relevant factors. The projected trends conform to two over-all economic perspectives: The lower represents an outcome highly probable in the light of current pro-