Statistical analysis is used to evaluate trends in the relative prices of natural resource commodity aggregates and to predict the adequacy of natural resource supplies. The model incorporates the Brown-Durbin custom test and Quandt's log-liklihood ratio. The results indicate that a relative price series is not stable enough to predict a consistent pattern of change and it would be unwise to base materials and extraction policies on this framework. This conclusion is reached, in part, because of the significant changes in the US economy and institutions in recent years. 22 references.

The achievement of full employment or, as it is sometimes presented, the minimization of unemployment has been a major goal of public policy since the economic cataclysm of the 1930's. This goal reflects the implicit belief among policymakers that achieving full employment is the appropriate concern of a manpower policy responsive to the needs of individuals and society. This perception, along with the labor force concepts used to measure progress toward the full-employment objective, has its origin in the surroundings of the depression era and the Keynesian revolution. The events of this period, marked by mass unemployment and related economic hardship, and their conception in economic theory continue to shape contemporary economic policies and labor force concepts. What proved to be an adequate measure for one set of perceived problems may prove to be inadequate for another, necessitating a change in concepts or methods of measurement. In particular, the relevance of depression era policies and labor force concepts to the present is a question of major importance. Current surroundings have changed, with the growth of income transfer programs and multiple earner families weakening the link between unemployment and economic hardship. As the surroundings have changed, so has economic theory. Led by the resurgence of neoclassical theory and the development of neo-Marxist theories of segmentation, the perception of unemployment and its causes has changed over time. This paper traces the evolution of economic theory and events, and their impact upon labor force concepts. The relationship of current concepts of employment and unemployment to Keynesian theory and events of the depression era is described and the implications of post-Keynesian theories for these concepts explored. The argument is advanced that current labor force concepts lag behind contemporary economic theories and events. Some directions for change are suggested.

The relationship between spot and forward exchange rates and domestic and foreign interest rates is examined with transactions costs in all markets. Market participants choose the least-cost method of exchanging currencies in these markets, thus engaging in one-way arbitrage if that is preferable to a direct transaction. One-way arbitrage consists of using one exchange market and the two securities markets to replace a direct transaction in the other exchange market. It is shown that one-way arbitrage should prevent rates from ever departing enough from interest parity for conventional covered interest arbitrage to break even.

Tham V. Truong, Dennis N. Gash, Less-Developed Countries' Taxable Capacity and Economic Integration: A Cross-Sectional Analysis, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 61, No. 2 (May, 1979), pp. 312-316

The problem of motivating members of an organization to make decisions and to take actions that are congruent with the goals set by their superiors has been studied extensively. With costless incentive and information systems, the objective is to create incentives for subordinates to act in the best interests of those who determine the goals for the organization (e.g. owners, managers). However, with costly information and incentive systems, it may not always be optimal for an organization to remove goal conflicts.' In this paper, we report some results about the relationship between

Reviews the book "1977 Accounting Research Convocation: Papers Presented at the 1977 Accounting Research Convocation on the Subject of Patterns of Change," edited by Jonathan Davies.

Benjamin M. Friedman, V. Vance Roley, Investors' Portfolio Behavior under Alternative Models of Long-Term Interest Rate Expectations: Unitary, Rational, or Autoregressive, Econometrica, Vol. 47, No. 6 (Nov., 1979), pp. 1475-1497