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A Theory of Federal Debt Management
Investors' Portfolio Behavior under Alternative Models of Long-Term Interest Rate Expectations: Unitary, Rational, or Autoregressive
Benjamin M. Friedman, V. Vance Roley, Investors' Portfolio Behavior under Alternative Models of Long-Term Interest Rate Expectations: Unitary, Rational, or Autoregressive, Econometrica, Vol. 47, No. 6 (Nov., 1979), pp. 1475-1497