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Measuring systemic risk: A financial statement–based approach for insurance firms and banks

Contemporary Accounting Research 2025 42(1), 490-524 open access
We introduce CRISK, a financial statement–based measure, to assess the systemic risk contribution of a financial firm. CRISK measures the capital shortfall of a financial firm conditional on severe distress in the entire system. Our measure complements the market‐based measure, SRISK, introduced by Acharya et al. (2012, American Economic Review , 102 (3), 59–64) and Brownlees and Engle (2017, Review of Financial Studies , 30 (1), 48–79), in identifying systemically risky financial firms. While SRISK provides a timelier assessment using real‐time stock market data, CRISK offers a more nuanced approach using accounting information and is tailored to the distinct characteristics of insurance firms and commercial banks. Our empirical analysis shows that (1) compared to CRISK, SRISK tends to overestimate capital shortfalls for insurance firms and for banks that hold a substantial portion of Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation–insured deposits while underestimating capital shortfalls for banks heavily reliant on uninsured deposits; (2) CRISK estimates of capital shortfall closely align with the actual capital injections received by financial firms during the financial crisis of 2007–2009; and (3) CRISK exhibits a significant positive correlation with short interest. Based on our findings, we recommend using SRISK as an initial screening tool to identify potential systemically risky financial firms, followed by refining the list and validating the expected capital shortfall using CRISK.

Earnings quality on the street

Contemporary Accounting Research 2024 41(4), 2290-2324 open access
We develop a composite firm‐year earnings quality score ( EQSCORE ) that uses signals based on fundamental analysis. We obtain a proprietary data set of 613 reports about aggressive reporting practices over 2004–2009 for 230 unique firms from a research firm (RF). From these reports, we identify red flags of poor earnings quality relating to (1) sales quality, (2) margin quality, (3) cash flow quality, (4) corporate governance, (5) audit, and (6) others. We construct the EQSCORE using 51 signals employed by the RF and a novel approach that imitates the RF's process for discovering earnings quality. The EQSCORE outperforms existing composite models of earnings quality in identifying accounting and auditing enforcement releases and restated firm‐years and predicts future stock returns. The corporate governance–related and audit‐related red flags included in the EQSCORE complement accounting‐based red flags and enhance the ability of the EQSCORE to identify firms with poor earnings quality.