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What determines market development?

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2003 12(4), 390-421
There is considerable heterogeneity in the development of derivatives markets in different countries. The question is: why? This paper addresses this question in the context of major derivatives markets in Latin America. The largest derivatives exchanges in Latin America are located in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico. In addition, over-the-counter (OTC) markets exist in Chile and Peru. Excluding Peru, Chile's derivatives market is to date the least developed. We show that this is due to regulatory constrains and illiquidity. Domestic transactions are OTC, and consist mostly of exchange rate forwards. Recent changes in the Central Bank of Chile's exchange rate policy have not had a considerable impact on the aggregate trading volume of forwards. However, amendments made to the Law of Capital Markets in 2001 bring the possibility of having a more developed derivatives market in the future.

Decisions to Replace Consumer Durables Goods: An Econometric Application of Wiener and Renewal Processes

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2000 82(3), 452-461
Current sales of most consumer durable goods are accounted for by replacements. However, only in recent years has the economic literature provided a more rigorous analysis of replacement purchases by incorporating elements of dynamic programming and of the theory of stochastic processes. This paper is an empirical study of household replacement decisions modeled as an optimal stopping rule. Using data from the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) of the U.S. Department of Energy, we conclude that demographic variables, operation and replacement costs, and equipment characteristics may affect ownership spells of appliances such as electric heaters and central air conditioners.