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Work from Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse

American Economic Review 2026
We show remote work led to large drops in lease revenues, occupancy, and market rents in the commercial office sector. We revalue New York City office buildings, taking into account both the cash flow and discount rate implications of these shocks, and find a 46 percent decline in long-run value. For all US office markets combined, we find a $556.8 billion value destruction. Higher-quality buildings were buffered against these trends due to a flight to quality, while lower-quality offices are at risk of becoming a stranded asset. These valuation changes have repercussions for financial stability and local public finances.

Flattening the curve: Pandemic-Induced revaluation of urban real estate

Journal of Financial Economics 2022 146(2), 594-636
We show that the COVID-19 pandemic brought house price and rent declines in city centers, and price and rent increases away from the center, thereby flattening the bid-rent curve in most U.S. metropolitan areas. Across MSAs, the flattening of the bid-rent curve is larger when working from home is more prevalent, housing markets are more regulated, and supply is less elastic. Housing markets predict an urban revival with urban rent growth exceeding suburban rent growth for the foreseeable future, as working from home recedes.