Administrative earnings data reveal that households are exposed to large, countercyclical idiosyncratic tail risks in labor earnings. I illustrate how these risks affect asset prices within an asset pricing framework with recursive preferences, heterogeneous agents and incomplete markets. Quantitatively, a model in which agents face a time-varying probability of experiencing a rare, idiosyncratic disaster, with parameters disciplined by data, matches the level and dynamics of the equity premium. Stock returns are highly informative about labor market event risk, and, consistent with model predictions, initial claims for unemployment, a proxy for labor market uncertainty, is a highly robust predictor of returns.

Stablecoins seek to address the high price fluctuations of unbacked cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin and Ether. However, recent studies as well as the collapse of stablecoin USTC (Terra) cast doubt on the stability of stablecoins. Using well-known Markowitz portfolio optimization methods, we combine five leading stablecoins into a global minimum variance portfolio that represents a stable aggregate stablecoin (SAS). We find that SAS is much more stable than its constituent stablecoins. Also, in a stress test adding USTC to the portfolio, SAS remains stable with a narrow price range over time. Importantly, the construction of SAS using modern diversification methods has practical implications for the ongoing development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).

Using the IPO setting, we test whether firms signal the quality of their investments in innovation activities by claiming R&D tax credits. We find the presence and amount of the R&D credit are each associated with lower information asymmetry and with higher investor demand at IPO. Conservatively, we estimate that sample firms realize additional IPO proceeds of 32–45 percent of their creditable R&D expenditures, indicating economically significant non-tax benefits associated with the R&D credit. We verify the R&D credit signal by showing its positive association with firms’ future patenting activity, patent citations, and post-IPO stock returns. Results from these tests are concentrated among firms limited in their ability to obtain tax benefits from R&D credits, consistent with the R&D credit providing nontax benefits as a signal of innovation investment quality.

Abstract We study the removal of information from a market, such as a job-applicant screening tool. We characterize how removal harms groups with relative advantage in that information: typically those for whom the banned information is most precise relative to alternative signals. We illustrate this using recent bans on employers’ use of credit report data. Bans decrease job-finding rates for Black job-seekers by 3 percentage points and increase involuntary separations for Black new hires by 4 percentage points, primarily because other screening tools, such as interviews, have around 60% higher standard deviation of signal noise for Black relative to white job-seekers.

We consider the determinants of pay in US banks since 1986 using a new structural model in which banking firms are matched in rank order with management teams of varying talent. We calibrate the model to data from US bank holding companies focussing on labor’s share of bank value-added, the level of bankers’ pay and its sensitivity to bank performance. We find that three changes in banking regulation have shaped bankers’ pay in the last three decades: (1) removal of obstacles to interstate banking set off a process of banking consolidation in the 1990s, (2) deregulation at the end of the 1990’s allowing banks to pursue non-interest income has driven a trend toward higher pay and higher incentive pay, (3) tougher regulations following the financial crisis imposing an implicit tax on size and complexity has moderated pay in large banks but in so-doing has allowed smaller banks to take on business outside of standard credit intermediation resulting higher pay in those banks. Taking these structural changes into account we find a tendency over three decades for a decline in labor’s share, in line with superstar effects implied by our structural model.

This study examines whether the implementation of a mature enterprise risk management (ERM) framework by property and liability insurers improved their resilience in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic. To address the potential problem of endogeneity, we analyze a panel dataset of listed property and liability insurers from around the world using the propensity score matching method. Subsequently, a two-step “doubly robust” estimation method is employed. The results reveal that the performance of insurers with less mature ERM frameworks was adversely affected by the pandemic but that of insurers with more mature ERM frameworks was not. These findings remain consistent after conducting various robustness checks. Separate consideration of each ERM component reveals that no component independently enhanced insurers' resilience; rather, the components collectively enhanced their resilience. Overall, this study provides valuable insights for insurers and regulators aiming to enhance the industry's ability to withstand future challenges.

Abstract The percentage of U.S. homes heated with electricity has increased steadily from 1% in 1950 to 40% in 2020. Energy prices, geography, climate, housing characteristics, and income are shown to explain 90% of the increase, with energy prices by far the most important factor. The paper then estimates the cost of an electrification mandate for new homes. Households in warm states tend to prefer electricity anyway, so would be made worse off by less than $350 annually on average. Households in cold states, however, tend to prefer natural gas so would be made worse off by more than $1,000 annually.

Abstract Evaluating organizational effectiveness is a significant challenge for nonprofit donors making donation allocation decisions. Donations may be misallocated if organizational effectiveness is inadequately assessed, and donors, who are often organizational outsiders, rely on nonprofit disclosures on IRS Form 990 to make such assessments. We examine whether donors value volunteer commitment, as measured by the number of volunteers that nonprofits disclose on Form 990, alongside financial and governance disclosures in assessing organizational effectiveness. Donors and volunteers prefer to make respective gifts of money and time to nonprofits that are effective in furthering their missions. Based on the premise that volunteers, as organizational insiders, are better positioned than donors to judge the impact of their contributions, we hypothesize that volunteer commitment provides value‐relevant information to donors for use in assessing imprecise effectiveness signals—namely, the program ratio and corporate governance disclosures. Consistent with this, we find that the value relevance of the program ratio and corporate governance disclosures to donors is increasing with the level of volunteer commitment. These results suggest that donors view volunteer commitment as a signal of effectiveness, useful in interpreting other signals of effectiveness. The evidence is more pronounced among nonprofits that report more credible volunteer disclosures, have a larger proportion of sophisticated donors, and are more complex. These findings have implications for regulators considering nonprofit disclosure policies, as well as nonprofit managers and directors engaging volunteers.

Abstract The United Kingdom mandated expanded audit reports in two waves, starting in 2013 and 2017, respectively. Prior studies of the first wave, which included large and highly regulated companies, concluded that expanded reports have limited incremental value. We focus on the second wave, which included companies listed on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM). The AIM is characterized by emerging companies that are smaller, riskier, and subject to lighter regulatory requirements and to private monitoring. We examine whether investors and other stakeholders benefit from expanded reports in this setting. We document that AIM companies have shorter expanded reports and fewer key audit matters. Next, we demonstrate that these reports have negligible incremental information value for investors or consequences for the quality and cost of audits. Finally, although we find that some variations in the expanded reports' content are associated with investor reactions to the annual report and with audit fees, variations in external monitoring and company size do not play an incremental role. By focusing on a set of companies with weaker information environments, our findings help to extend the conclusions from prior studies about the limited incremental value of expanded reports.

Abstract To protect inframarginal rents, rivals react to competition shocks by increasing product differentiation or lowering costs by standardizing products and production processes. We test these two mutually exclusive reactions by exploiting changes in rivals’ idiosyncratic stock return comovement following significant tariff cuts. While increased product differentiation implies a reduction in return comovement, greater standardization implies the opposite (a comovement increase). Difference-in-differences (DID) tests indicate that tariff cuts cause a significant increase in return comovement—in particular among within-industry “followers.” Treatment effects on cash flows, product counts, similarity scores, and business segment counts further support cost-cutting strategies.