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Environmental Regulation and Labor Reallocation: Evidence from the Clean Air Act

American Economic Review 2011 101(3), 442-447
This paper uses newly available data on plant level regulatory status linked to the Census Longitudinal Business Database to measure the impact of changes in county level environmental regulations on plant and sector employment levels. Estimates from a variety of specifications suggest a strong connection between changes in environmental regulatory stringency and both employment growth and levels in the affected sectors. The preferred estimates suggest that changes in county level regulatory status due to the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments reduced the size of the regulated sector by as much as 15 percent in the 10 years following the changes.

Covenants without Courts: Enforcing Residential Segregation with Legally Unenforceable Agreements

American Economic Review 2011 101(3), 360-365
Racial restrictive covenants are private agreements prohibiting sale, rental, use or occupancy of properties by persons of designated races, ethnicities, nationalities and religions. Widely acknowledged for facilitating residential segregation, the Supreme Court ruled covenants unenforceable in 1948. Yet they remained legal to write and reference, allowing realtors, banks, insurers, title companies and government agencies to continue to rely on unenforceable covenants in their decisions and policies. Beyond legal enforceability, covenants were essentially signals that coordinated the behavior of a variety of private individual and institutional actors—signals that remained effective without the courts. Evidence is presented to support this claim.

The Role of Dispute Settlement Procedures in International Trade Agreements*

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2011 126(1), 475-515
Although disputes are typically treated as synonymous with concerns about enforcement in economic models of trade agreements, in reality most WTO disputes seem to concern the interpretation of vague provisions, or instances where the agreement is silent. And some have suggested that the WTO's Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) could usefully grant exceptions to rigid contractual obligations. These activist DSB roles could help “complete” an incomplete contract. But how activist should the DSB be? Should DSB rulings set precedent? We address these questions by characterizing the optimal choice of contract form and DSB mandate under various contracting conditions. JEL Codes: D02, D78, D86, F13, K12, K33.

New Evidence on the Relation between the Enterprise Multiple and Average Stock Returns

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2011 46(6), 1629-1650
Abstract Practitioners increasingly use the enterprise multiple (EM) as a valuation measure. EM is (equity value + debt + preferred stock – cash) / (EBITDA). We document that EM is a strong determinant of stock returns. Following Fama and French (1993) and Chen, Novy-Marx, and Zhang (2010), we create an EM factor that generates a return premium of 5.28% per year. We interpret EM as a proxy for the discount rate. Firms with low EM values appear to have higher discount rates and higher subsequent stock returns than firms with high EM values.

What Do Trade Negotiators Negotiate About? Empirical Evidence from the World Trade Organization

American Economic Review 2011 101(4), 1238-1273
According to the terms-of-trade theory, governments use trade agreements to escape from a terms-of-trade-driven prisoner's dilemma. We use the terms-of-trade theory to develop a relationship that predicts negotiated tariff levels on the basis of pre-negotiation data: tariffs, import volumes and prices, and trade elasticities. We then confront this predicted relationship with data on the outcomes of tariff negotiations associated with the accession of new members to the World Trade Organization. We find strong and robust support for the central predictions of the terms-of-trade theory in the observed pattern of negotiated tariff cuts. (JEL F11, F13)

What’s in a Name?

Psychological Science 2011 22(2), 176-183
Voluntary settlement on a frontier may promote values of independence. At present, however, researchers know little about the behavioral consequences of this process. In this study, we examined regional variations in baby naming. Because baby naming is an act of considerable personal and familial significance, it reflects prevalent cultural values. In support of the hypothesized link between frontier settlement and independence, we found that babies receive popular names less frequently in western regions of the United States than in its eastern regions (Study 1). The same pattern holds in Canada (Study 2), with popular names being less frequent in western provinces than in eastern provinces. Moreover, popular names are less frequently given to babies in world regions in which Europeans have settled (e.g., Australia, the United States) than in European countries (Study 3). These findings have implications for cross-generational transmission of cultural values.

Optimal Value and Growth Tilts in Long-Horizon Portfolios

Review of Finance 2011 15(1), 29-74 open access
Abstract We develop an analytical solution to the dynamic portfolio choice problem of an investor with power utility defined over wealth at a finite horizon, who faces a time-varying investment opportunity set, parameterized using a flexible vector autoregression. We apply this framework to study the horizon effects in the allocations of equity-only investors, who hold a mix of value and growth indices, and a more general investor, who also has access to Treasury bills and bonds. We find that the mean allocation of equity-only investors is heavily tilted towards value stocks at short-horizons, but the magnitude of this tilt declines dramatically with the investment horizon, implying that growth is less risky than value at long horizons. Investors with access to bills and bonds exhibit similar behavior, when value and growth tilts are computed relative to the total equity allocation of the portfolio. However, after accounting for the propensity of these investors to increase their total equity allocation as the horizon increases, the mean value tilt of the optimal allocation is shown to be positive and stable across time.