abstract This study investigates whether the difference in individual shareholder tax rates between dividend income and capital gain (the dividend tax penalty) affects a firm's choice between distributing funds to shareholders through dividends or share repurchases. The results of this study suggest that, in periods in which the dividend tax penalty increases, firms are more likely to distribute funds to shareholders through share repurchases as opposed to dividends. The results also indicate that the relation between the dividend tax penalty and corporate payout choice is affected by the types of shareholders who own stock in the firm. As tax-disfavored institutional ownership increases and the dividend tax penalty increases, firms are more likely to repurchase shares as opposed to distributing dividends. In contrast, as tax-favored institutional ownership increases and the dividend tax penalty increases, firms are less likely to repurchase shares as opposed to distributing dividends. As senior managerial share ownership increases and the dividend tax penalty increases, firms are more likely to make distributions to shareholders in the form of share repurchases.

Abstract This study uses machine‐learning methods to predict next‐period change in profitability based on a model proposed by Penman and Zhang (2004, Working paper, Columbia University and University of California, Berkeley; “PZ”). We find that new machine‐learning methods predict out of sample substantially better than traditional regression methods and provide richer interpretations about the role and impact of different predictor variables through their nonlinear relationships and interaction effects. For example, our results contrast with previous research by showing that both components of the DuPont decomposition (change in profit margin and change in asset turnover) are informative of next‐period changes in profitability. Our results are robust across different performance metrics, alternative machine‐learning models, and software. Furthermore, an unconstrained machine‐learning model using a larger feature space could not significantly improve the performance of the PZ model. PZ variables alone accounted for most of the explanatory power of the unconstrained model, suggesting the PZ model is both well specified (in terms of feature selection) and robust in higher dimensional settings. With respect to the economic significance of this information, we find mixed results. The market appears to adjust its expectations more in line with the machine‐learning predictions relative to the PZ model but the portfolio returns are not significantly different.

ABSTRACT We estimate firm‐level implied cost of equity capital based on recent advances in accounting and finance research and examine the effect of dividend taxes on the cost of equity capital. We investigate whether dividend taxes affect firms' cost of capital by testing the relation between the implied cost of equity capital and a measure of the tax‐penalized portion of dividend yield, which we define as the product of dividend yield and the dividend tax penalty. The results generally support the dividend tax capitalization hypothesis. We find a positive relation between the implied cost of equity capital and the tax‐penalized portion of dividend yield that is decreasing in aggregate institutional ownership, our proxy for tax‐advantaged investors. The evidence in this study adds to the understanding of the effect of investor‐level taxes on equity value.