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Competition among mutual funds

Journal of Financial Economics 2011 99(1), 40-59 open access
We examine the impact of the entry of new mutual funds on incumbents using the overlap in their portfolio holdings as a measure of competitive intensity. This simple metric delivers powerful economic results. Incumbents that have a high overlap with entrants subsequently engage in price competition by reducing management fees. Distribution fees, however, rise so that investors do not benefit as much from price competition. Funds with high overlap also experience quantity competition through lower investor flows, have lower alphas, and higher attrition rates. These effects only appear after the late 1990s, at which point there appears to be an endogenous structural shift in the competitive environment. We conclude that the mutual fund market has evolved into one that displays the hallmark features of a competitive market.

Jump risk, stock returns, and slope of implied volatility smile

Journal of Financial Economics 2011 99(1), 216-233
In the presence of jump risk, expected stock return is a function of the average jump size, which can be proxied by the slope of option implied volatility smile. This implies a negative predictive relation between the slope of implied volatility smile and stock return. For more than four thousand stocks ranked by slope during 1996–2005, the difference between the risk-adjusted average returns of the lowest and highest quintile portfolios is 1.9% per month. Although both the systematic and idiosyncratic components of slope are priced, the idiosyncratic component dominates the systematic component in explaining the return predictability of slope. The findings are robust after controlling for stock characteristics such as size, book-to-market, leverage, volatility, skewness, and volume. Furthermore, the results cannot be explained by alternative measures of steepness of implied volatility smile in previous studies.

Privatization and Risk Sharing: Evidence from the Split Share Structure Reform in China

Review of Financial Studies 2011 24(7), 2499-2525
[We study the share privatization process in China to investigate whether and how the removal of market frictions is associated with efficiency gains. Prior to the reform, domestic A-shares were divided into tradable and non-tradable shares. As a result of the reform, holders of non-tradable shares compensated holders of tradable shares in order to make their shares tradable. We show that size is positively associated with both the gain in risk sharing and the price impact of more shares coming on the market as a result of the reform. Our study highlights the role of risk sharing in China's share issue privatization process.]

The Potential of Social Identity for Equilibrium Selection

American Economic Review 2011 101(6), 2562-2589
When does a common group identity improve efficiency in coordination games? To answer this question, we propose a group-contingent social preference model and derive conditions under which social identity changes equilibrium selection. We test our predictions in the minimum-effort game in the laboratory under parameter configurations which lead to an inefficient low-effort equilibrium for subjects with no group identity. For those with a salient group identity, consistent with our theory, we find that learning leads to ingroup coordination to the efficient high-effort equilibrium. Additionally, our theoretical framework reconciles findings from a number of coordination game experiments. (JEL C71, C91, D71)

R&D Investment, Exporting, and Productivity Dynamics

American Economic Review 2011 101(4), 1312-1344
This paper estimates a dynamic structural model of a producer's decision to invest in R&D and export, allowing both choices to endogenously affect the future path of productivity. Using plant-level data for the Taiwanese electronics industry, both activities are found to have a positive effect on the plant's future productivity. This in turn drives more plants to self-select into both activities, contributing to further productivity gains. Simulations of an expansion of the export market are shown to increase both exporting and R&D investment and generate a gradual within-plant productivity improvement. (JEL D24, F14, G31, L63, O31, O33)

Financial Distress and the Cross‐section of Equity Returns

Journal of Finance 2011 66(3), 789-822
ABSTRACT We explicitly consider financial leverage in a simple equity valuation model and study the cross‐sectional implications of potential shareholder recovery upon resolution of financial distress. Our model is capable of simultaneously explaining lower returns for financially distressed stocks, stronger book‐to‐market effects for firms with high default likelihood, and the concentration of momentum profits among low credit quality firms. The model further predicts (i) a hump‐shaped relationship between value premium and default probability, and (ii) stronger momentum profits for nearly distressed firms with significant prospects for shareholder recovery. Our empirical analysis strongly confirms these novel predictions.

The Interim Trading Skills of Institutional Investors

Journal of Finance 2011 66(2), 601-633
ABSTRACT Using a large proprietary database of institutional trades, this paper examines the interim (intraquarter) trading skills of institutional investors. We find strong evidence that institutional investors earn significant abnormal returns on their trades within the trading quarter and that interim trading performance is persistent. After transactions costs, our estimates suggest that interim trading skills contribute between 20 and 26 basis points per year to the average fund's abnormal performance. Our findings also indicate that any trading skills documented by previous studies that use quarterly data are biased downwards because of their inability to account for interim trades.

Overconfidence and Early‐Life Experiences: The Effect of Managerial Traits on Corporate Financial Policies

Journal of Finance 2011 66(5), 1687-1733 open access
ABSTRACT We show that measurable managerial characteristics have significant explanatory power for corporate financing decisions. First, managers who believe that their firm is undervalued view external financing as overpriced, especially equity financing. Such overconfident managers use less external finance and, conditional on accessing external capital, issue less equity than their peers. Second, CEOs who grew up during the Great Depression are averse to debt and lean excessively on internal finance. Third, CEOs with military experience pursue more aggressive policies, including heightened leverage. Complementary measures of CEO traits based on press portrayals confirm the results.

Privatization and Risk Sharing: Evidence from the Split Share Structure Reform in China

Review of Financial Studies 2011 24(7), 2499-2525
We study the share privatization process in China to investigate whether and how the removal of market frictions is associated with efficiency gains. Prior to the reform, domestic A-shares were divided into tradable and non-tradable shares. As a result of the reform, holders of non-tradable shares compensated holders of tradable shares in order to make their shares tradable. We show that size is positively associated with both the gain in risk sharing and the price impact of more shares coming on the market as a result of the reform. Our study highlights the role of risk sharing in China's share issue privatization process. The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: [email protected]., Oxford University Press.