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Can Enforcement Backfire? Crime Displacement in the Context of Customs Reform in the Philippines

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2008 90(1), 1-14
Increased enforcement can displace crime to alternative lawbreaking methods. This paper examines a customs reform in the Philippines that raised enforcement against a specific method of avoiding import duties. Increased enforcement applied only to shipments from some countries, so shipments from other countries serve as a control group. Increased enforcement reduced the targeted duty-avoidance method, but caused substantial displacement to an alternative method. The hypothesis of zero change in total duty avoidance cannot be rejected. Displacement was greater for products with higher tariff rates and import volumes, consistent with the existence of fixed costs of switching to alternative duty-avoidance methods.

The Real Determinants of Asset Sales

Journal of Finance 2008 63(5), 2231-2262 open access
I develop a dynamic structural model in which a firm makes rational decisions to buy or sell assets in the presence of productivity shocks. By identifying equilibrium asset prices, the model also examines the aggregate asset sales activity over the business cycle. It shows that changes in productivity, rather than productivity levels, affect decisions: Firms with rising productivity buy assets and firms with falling productivity downsize (“rising buys falling”). As such, industries in which firms have less persistent and more volatile productivity experience greater asset reallocation. Using plant‐level data from Longitudinal Research Database (LRD), I find strong support for the model's predictions.

Asymmetric effect of basis on dynamic futures hedging: Empirical evidence from commodity markets

Journal of Banking & Finance 2008 32(2), 187-198
The dynamic minimum variance hedge ratios (MVHRs) have been commonly estimated using the Bivariate GARCH model that overlooks the basis effect on the time-varying variance–covariance of spot and futures returns. This paper proposes an alternative specification of the BGARCH model in which the effect is incorporated for estimating MVHRs. Empirical investigation in commodity markets suggests that the basis effect is asymmetric, i.e., the positive basis has greater impact than the negative basis on the variance and covariance structure. Both in-sample and out-of-sample comparisons of the MVHR performance reveal that the model with the asymmetric effect provides greater risk reduction than the conventional models, illustrating importance of the asymmetric effect when modeling the joint dynamics of spot and futures returns and hence estimating hedging strategies.

The determinants of board structure☆

Journal of Financial Economics 2008 87(2), 308-328
Using a comprehensive sample of nearly 7,000 firms from 1990 to 2004, we examine the corporate board structure, trends, and determinants. Guided by recent theoretical work, we find that board structure across firms is consistent with the costs and benefits of the board's monitoring and advising roles. Our models explain as much as 45% of the observed variation in board structure. Further, small and large firms have dramatically different board structures. For example, board size fell in the 1990s for large firms, a trend that reversed at the time of mandated reforms, while board size was relatively flat for small and medium-sized firms.

Information Asymmetry and Asset Prices: Evidence from the China Foreign Share Discount

Journal of Finance 2008 63(1), 159-196
We examine the effect of information asymmetry on equity prices in the local A‐ and foreign B‐share market in China. We construct measures of information asymmetry based on market microstructure models, and find that they explain a significant portion of cross‐sectional variation in B‐share discounts, even after controlling for other factors. On a univariate basis, the price impact measure and the adverse selection component of the bid‐ask spread in the A‐ and B‐share markets explains 44% and 46% of the variation in B‐share discounts. On a multivariate basis, both measures are far more statistically significant than any of the control variables.

Do Euro exchange rates follow a martingale? Some out-of-sample evidence

Journal of Banking & Finance 2008 32(5), 729-740
Traditional autocorrelation and variance ratio tests are based on serial uncorrelatedness rather than martingale difference. As such, they do not capture potential nonlinearity-in-mean, which could lead to misleading inferences in favor of the martingale hypothesis. This paper employs various parametric and nonparametric nonlinear models as well as several model comparison criteria to examine the potential martingale behavior of Euro exchange rates in the context of out-of-sample forecasts. The overall evidence indicates that, while martingale behavior cannot be rejected for Euro exchange rates with major currencies such as the Japanese yen, British pound, and US dollar, there is nonlinear predictability in terms of economic criteria with respect to several smaller currencies.