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Valuing Private Equity

Review of Financial Studies 2014 27(7), 1977-2021
We investigate whether the performance of private equity (PE) investments is sufficient to compensate investors (LPs) for risk, long-term illiquidity, management, and incentive fees charged by the general partner (GP). We analyze the LPs' portfolio-choice problem and find that management fees, carried interest, and illiquidity are costly, and GPs must generate substantial alpha to compensate LPs for bearing these costs. Debt is cheap and reduces these costs, potentially explaining the high leverage of buyout transactions. Conventional interpretations of PE performance measures appear optimistic. On average, LPs may just break even, net of management fees, carry, risk, and costs of illiquidity.

Speculation and Hedging in Segmented Markets

Review of Financial Studies 2014 27(3), 881-922
We analyze a model in which traders have different trading opportunities and learn information from prices. The difference in trading opportunities implies that different traders may have different trading motives when trading in the same market—some trade for speculation and others for hedging—and thus they may respond to the same information in opposite directions. This implies that adding more informed traders may reduce price informativeness and therefore provides a source for learning complementarities leading to multiple equilibria and price jumps. Our model is relevant to various realistic settings and helps to understand a variety of modern financial markets.

Compulsory Education and the Benefits of Schooling

American Economic Review 2014 104(6), 1777-1792
Causal estimates of the benefits of increased schooling using US state schooling laws as instruments typically rely on specifications which assume common trends across states in the factors affecting different birth cohorts. Differential changes across states during this period, such as relative school quality improvements, suggest that this assumption may fail to hold. Across a number of outcomes including wages, unemployment, and divorce, we find that statistically significant causal estimates become insignificant and, in many instances, wrong-signed when allowing year of birth effects to vary across regions.

Opaque Trading, Disclosure, and Asset Prices: Implications for Hedge Fund Regulation

Review of Financial Studies 2014 27(4), 1190-1237
We investigate the effect of ambiguity about hedge fund investment strategies on asset prices and aggregate welfare. We model some traders (mutual funds) as facing ambiguity about the equilibrium trading strategies of other traders (hedge funds). This ambiguity limits the ability of mutual funds to infer information from prices and has negative effects on market outcomes. We use this analysis to investigate the implications of regulations that affect disclosure requirements of hedge funds or the cost of operating a hedge fund. Our analysis demonstrates how regulations affect asset prices and welfare through their influence on opaque trading.

Director networks and takeovers

Journal of Corporate Finance 2014 28, 218-234 open access
We study the impact of corporate networks on the takeover process. We find that better connected companies are more active bidders. When a bidder and a target have one or more directors in common, the probability that the takeover transaction will be successfully completed augments, and the duration of the negotiations is shorter. Connected targets more frequently accept offers that involve equity. Directors of the target firm (who are not interlocked) have a better chance to be invited to the board of the combined firm in connected M&As. While connections have a clear impact on the takeover strategy and process, we do not find evidence that the market acknowledges connections between bidders and targets as the announcement returns are not statistically different from those bidders and targets which are ex ante not connected.

Estimating and using GARCH models with VIX data for option valuation

Journal of Banking & Finance 2014 43, 200-211
This paper uses information on VIX to improve the empirical performance of GARCH models for pricing options on the S&P 500. In pricing multiple cross-sections of options, the models’ performance can clearly be improved by extracting daily spot volatilities from the series of VIX rather than by linking spot volatility with different dates by using the series of the underlying’s returns. Moreover, in contrast to traditional returns-based Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), a joint MLE with returns and VIX improves option pricing performance, and for NGARCH, joint MLE can yield empirically almost the same out-of-sample option pricing performance as direct calibration does to in-sample options, but without costly computations. Finally, consistently with the existing research, this paper finds that non-affine models clearly outperform affine models.

CEO duality and firm performance: Evidence from an exogenous shock to the competitive environment

Journal of Banking & Finance 2014 49, 534-552
Regulators and governance activists are pressuring firms to abolish CEO duality (the Chief Executive Officer is also the Chairman of the Board). However, the literature provides mixed evidence on the relation between CEO duality and firm performance. Using the exogenous shock of the 1989 Canada–United States Free Trade Agreement, we find that duality firms outperform non-duality firms by 3–4% when their competitive environments change. Further, the performance difference is larger for firms with higher information costs and better corporate governance. Our results underscore the benefits of CEO duality in saving information costs and making speedy decisions.

Valuing Private Equity

Review of Financial Studies 2014 27(7), 1977-2021
We investigate whether the performance of private equity (PE) investments is sufficient to compensate investors (LPs) for risk, long-term illiquidity, management, and incentive fees charged by the general partner (GP).We analyze the LPs’ portfolio-choice problem and find that management fees, carried interest, and illiquidity are costly, and GPs must generate substantial alpha to compensate LPs for bearing these costs. Debt is cheap and reduces these costs, potentially explaining the high leverage of buyout transactions. Conventional interpretations of PE performance measures appear optimistic. On average, LPs may just break even, net of management fees, carry, risk, and costs of illiquidity.

Opaque Trading, Disclosure, and Asset Prices: Implications for Hedge Fund Regulation

Review of Financial Studies 2014 27(4), 1190-1237 open access
We investigate the effect of ambiguity about hedge fund investment strategies on asset prices and aggregate welfare. We model some traders (mutual funds) as facing ambiguity about the equilibrium trading strategies of other traders (hedge funds). This ambiguity limits the ability of mutual funds to infer information from prices and has negative effects on market outcomes. We use this analysis to investigate the implications of regulations that affect disclosure requirements of hedge funds or the cost of operating a hedge fund. Our analysis demonstrates how regulations affect asset prices and welfare through their influence on opaque trading.