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Do financial analysts' long-term growth forecasts matter? Evidence from stock recommendations and career outcomes

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2012 53(1-2), 55-76
Prior literature portrays long-term growth (LTG) forecasts as nonsensical from a valuation perspective. Instead, we hypothesize that LTG forecasts signal high effort and ability to analyze firms' long-term prospects. We document stronger market response to stock recommendation revisions of analysts who publish accompanying LTG forecasts. We also hypothesize and find that these analysts are less likely to leave the profession or move to smaller brokerage houses. Consistent with Reg. FD's intention to promote fundamental analysis of long-term earnings prospects, post-Reg. FD observations drive our results. Overall, we identify previously undocumented benefits accruing to analysts who publish LTG forecasts.

The Debt-Equity Choice When Regulatory Thresholds are Based on Equity Values: Evidence from SOX 404

The Accounting Review 2020 95(2), 339-364
When larger market values of equity result in being subject to costly regulation, firms have incentives to shift their sources of financing toward debt and away from equity. We use the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (SOX) as a setting to provide evidence of such incentives. Smaller firms were granted several reprieves and eventually exempted from the internal control audit requirements of SOX Section 404, which many consider the most costly and onerous aspect of SOX. Using a difference-in-differences design, we show that relative to control firms, firms just below the regulatory threshold have increased propensities to issue debt, decreased propensities to issue equity, and increased leverage levels in the post-SOX period. These results are consistent with firms altering their financing choices to maintain their exempt status and demonstrate an economic consequence of regulatory regimes that are tiered by equity values.

Issuer Operating Performance and IPO Price Formation

Journal of Accounting Research 2015 53(5), 1109-1149
We study the relation between issuer operating performance and initial public offering (IPO) price formation from the initial price range to the offer price to the closing price on the first trading day. For a post‐bubble sample of 2001–2013 IPOs, we find that pre‐IPO net income and, in particular, operating cash flow are strongly, positively associated with the revision from the mid‐point of the initial price range to the offer price and that the “partial adjustment phenomenon” concentrates among issuers with the strongest operating performance. As for why publicly observable information helps predict changes in valuation from when the initial price range is set to when the offer price is set, our findings suggest that strong‐performing issuers, especially those offering small slices of ownership, have lower bargaining incentives and are susceptible to the underwriter(s) low‐balling the price range. Overall, our results suggest an important role for accounting information in understanding the pricing of book‐built IPOs and are consistent with the presence of agency problems between issuers and underwriters.