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To Share or Not to Share: Demand Forecast Sharing in a Distribution Channel

Marketing Science 2016 35(5), 800-809
This paper studies information sharing in a distribution channel where the manufacturer possesses better demand-forecast information than the downstream retailer. We examine three information-sharing formats: no information sharing (i.e., the manufacturer ex ante commits to not sharing its forecast), voluntary information sharing (i.e., the manufacturer makes the sharing decision ex post after receiving the forecast), and mandatory information sharing (i.e., the manufacturer is mandated to share its forecast). We characterize the equilibrium outcomes under the three sharing formats and investigate the firms’ preferences regarding these formats. It is shown that when the retailer is risk-neutral, both firms are indifferent between voluntary and mandatory sharing. Among the three formats, ex ante, the retailer prefers the no-sharing format whereas the manufacturer prefers the mandatory-sharing format. In addition, we find that a more accurate forecast benefits both firms under voluntary- and mandatory-sharing formats, but may hurt both firms under the no-sharing format. Finally, we show that risk aversion plays a critical role in the firms’ sharing decisions and the impact of forecast accuracy. Specifically, when the retailer is risk-averse, the manufacturer may prefer the no-sharing format over the voluntary-sharing format, and improving forecast accuracy may hurt both firms even under voluntary sharing.

A reinforcement learning approach for hotel revenue management with evidence from field experiments

Journal of Operations Management 2023 69(7), 1176-1201
AbstractWe consider a budget hotel chain's revenue management problem of deciding how to dynamically allocate capacity to multiple segments of customers. Our work solves an industrial‐sized problem faced by practitioners, with the reality of implementation motivating us to develop a tailored reinforcement learning approach. Our approach proceeds in two steps. First, a recommended average discount is computed with a reinforcement learning algorithm. Then, the recommended average discount is turned into a capacity allocation through a linear program. This approach overcomes the challenges of characterizing demand and estimating cancellations, and it facilitates hotel managers' acceptance of the revenue management system. We implement this approach in the hotel chain in a pilot study and assess its effectiveness using synthetic control methods. Our approach improves the key operational performance measure—revenue per available room—by 11.80%. There is heterogeneity in how the pilot hotels improve their revenue per available room. Some mainly increase their occupancy rate, some mainly increase the average daily room rate, while others experience significant increases in both. Further analysis shows that our approach uncovers the individual sources of suboptimal performance in pilot hotels and correspondingly improves decision‐making. Our work demonstrates that a reinforcement learning approach for hotel revenue management is promising.