We study the estimation of (joint) moments of microstructure noise based on high frequency data. The estimation is conducted under a nonparametric setting, which allows the underlying price process to have jumps, the observation times to be irregularly spaced, and the noise to be dependent on the price process and to have diurnal features. Estimators of arbitrary orders of (joint) moments are provided, for which we establish consistency as well as central limit theorems. In particular, we provide estimators of autocovariances and autocorrelations of the noise. Simulation studies demonstrate excellent performance of our estimators in the presence of jumps, irregular observation times, and even rounding. Empirical studies reveal (moderate) positive autocorrelations of microstructure noise for the stocks tested.

The leverage effect refers to the generally negative correlation between an asset return and its changes of volatility. A natural estimate consists in using the empirical correlation between the daily returns and the changes of daily volatility estimated from high frequency data. The puzzle lies in the fact that such an intuitively natural estimate yields nearly zero correlation for most assets tested, despite the many economic reasons for expecting the estimated correlation to be negative. To better understand the sources of the puzzle, we analyze the different asymptotic biases that are involved in high frequency estimation of the leverage effect, including biases due to discretization errors, to smoothing errors in estimating spot volatilities, to estimation error, and to market microstructure noise. This decomposition enables us to propose novel bias correction methods for estimating the leverage effect.

We present a novel methodology for the out-of-sample forecast of the equity premium. Our predictive slope coefficient is a conservative constant that has a lower bias than the zero slope employed by the historical average, but has the same variance. We demonstrate that, theoretically and empirically, our method dominates the historical average in forecast performance. Our methodology establishes a simple yet powerful paradigm for exploiting the real-time equity premium predictability derived from a predictor. Applications of our method reveal that many predictors can forecast the equity premium, and that parameter estimates in previous studies add value to out-of-sample forecasts.