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The long of it: Odds that investor sentiment spuriously predicts anomaly returns

Journal of Financial Economics 2014 114(3), 613-619
Extremely long odds accompany the chance that spurious-regression bias accounts for investor sentiment׳s observed role in stock-return anomalies. We replace investor sentiment with a simulated persistent series in regressions reported by Stambaugh, Yu, and Yuan (2012), who find higher long-short anomaly profits following high sentiment, due entirely to the short leg. Among 200 million simulated regressors, we find none that support those conclusions as strongly as investor sentiment. The key is consistency across anomalies. Obtaining just the predicted signs for the regression coefficients across the 11 anomalies examined in the above study occurs only once for every 43 simulated regressors.

Wisdom of Crowds: The Value of Stock Opinions Transmitted Through Social Media

Review of Financial Studies 2014 27(5), 1367-1403
Social media has become a popular venue for individuals to share the results of their own analysis on financial securities. This paper investigates the extent to which investor opinions transmitted through social media predict future stock returns and earnings surprises. We conduct textual analysis of articles published on one of the most popular social media platforms for investors in the United States. We also consider the readers' perspective as inferred via commentaries written in response to these articles. We find that the views expressed in both articles and commentaries predict future stock returns and earnings surprises.

Stock repurchases as an earnings management mechanism: The impact of financing constraints

Journal of Corporate Finance 2014 25, 1-15
Our paper provides evidence regarding the use of share repurchases as an earnings management mechanism in the presence of debt-financing constraints as well as the impact of these constraints on the use of accruals and other real earnings management techniques. We document that share repurchases are prevalent as a mechanism to increase earnings per share. Next, we show that the presence of debt-financing constraints discourages the use of repurchase-based earnings management. We also find that for firms more likely to be engaged in earnings management, high financing constraints appear to increase the use of accruals based earnings management and decrease the use of other real earnings management techniques.

Information Environment and the Investment Decisions of Multinational Corporations

The Accounting Review 2014 89(2), 759-790 open access
ABSTRACT This paper examines how the external information environment in which foreign subsidiaries operate affects the investment decisions of multinational corporations (MNCs). We hypothesize and find that the investment decisions of foreign subsidiaries in country-industries with more transparent information environments are more responsive to local growth opportunities than are those of foreign subsidiaries in country-industries with less transparent information environments. Further, this effect is larger when (1) there are greater cross-border frictions between the parent and subsidiary, and (2) the parents are relatively more involved in their subsidiaries' investment decision-making process. Our results suggest that the external information environment helps mitigate the agency problems that arise when firms expand their operations across borders. This paper contributes to the literature by showing that the external information environment helps MNCs mitigate information frictions within the firm. JEL Classifications: D83; G31; M41. Data Availability: Data are available from public sources identified in the paper.

Accounting Standards and International Portfolio Holdings

The Accounting Review 2014 89(5), 1895-1930 open access
ABSTRACT Do differences in countries' accounting standards affect global investment decisions? We explore this question by examining how accounting distance, the difference in the accounting standards used in the investor's and the investee's countries, affects the asset allocation decisions of global mutual funds. We find that investors tend to underweight investees with greater accounting distance. Using the mandatory adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) as an event that changed the accounting standards of various country-pairs, we examine how two sources of changes in accounting distance—(1) changes due to IFRS adoption of the investee, and (2) changes due to IFRS adoption in the investor's country—affect global portfolio allocation decisions. We find that the tendency to underinvest in investees with greater accounting distance significantly weakens when accounting distance is reduced, either from an investee's IFRS adoption or from IFRS adoption in the investor's country. The latter finding holds despite the fact that IFRS adoption in the investor's country had no impact on the accounting standards under which the investee firms present their financial information; the only change is in the investor's familiarity with these standards. This suggests that differences in accounting standards affect investor demand by imposing greater information-processing costs on those less familiar with the reporting standards.

Do women directors improve firm performance in China?

Journal of Corporate Finance 2014 28, 169-184
This paper examines the effect of board gender diversity on firm performance in China's listed firms from 1999 to 2011. We document a positive and significant relation between board gender diversity and firm performance. Female executive directors have a stronger positive effect on firm performance than female independent directors, indicating that the executive effect outweighs the monitoring effect. Moreover, boards with three or more female directors have a stronger impact on firm performance than boards with two or fewer female directors, consistent with the critical mass theory. Finally, we find that the impact of female directors on firm performance is significant in legal person-controlled firms but insignificant in state-controlled firms. This paper sheds new light on China's boardroom dynamics. As governments increasingly contemplate board gender diversity policies, our study offers useful empirical guidance to Chinese regulators on the issue.

Transparency and Financing Choices of Family Firms

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2014 49(2), 381-408 open access
Abstract While recent literature documents that U.S. family firms differ markedly from their nonfamily counterparts, there is a paucity of evidence on how these firms differ in terms of their cost of capital or financial structure. In this paper, we show that family and nonfamily firms differ in their debt maturity and leverage ratios in a manner consistent with the higher expropriation potential of family firms. Moreover, while more transparency causes both family and nonfamily firms to increase the maturity structure of their debt and reduce leverage ratios, the effects are stronger for family firms.