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Geographic overlap and acquisition pairing

Strategic Management Journal 2018 39(2), 329-355
Research Summary : This study examines the role of geographic factors in explaining acquisition pairing using a novel conditional logic methodology. Drawing from information asymmetry arguments regarding acquisition decisions, we theorize that geographic overlap between the acquirer and potential targets’ businesses and operations enables the acquirer to collect more information about the potential target through its multiple business operations that are geographically proximate. We also demonstrate moderating boundary conditions. In particular, we examine acquiring firm characteristics, acquiring firm size and geographic dispersion, which both weaken the relationship between geographic overlap and acquisition pairing. Likewise, we examine two dyadic distance moderators, geographic distance and product dissimilarity, both of which increase information asymmetry between the acquirer and potential targets, which increases the effect of geographic overlap in facilitating acquisition pairing. Managerial Summary : Firms pursuing acquisition activities face severe information asymmetry when evaluating potential targets. This study investigates how acquiring firms leverage geographic conditions to overcome information asymmetry and choose targets that they can better evaluate. We find that acquirers are more likely to choose targets that have subsidiaries or business operations overlapping in the same states as the acquirers themselves. This is particularly true for small acquirers, which lack resources and capabilities to seek external assistance, and acquirers that have business operations in more concentrated locations. We also find that acquiring targets with geographically overlapped business operations is especially salient when the target's headquarters is distantly located from the acquirer or when the target offers dissimilar products from the acquirer.

Geographic overlap and acquisition pairing

Strategic Management Journal 2018 39(2), 329-355
[Research summary: This study examines the role of geographic factors in explaining acquisition pairing using a novel conditional logic methodology. Drawing from information asymmetry arguments regarding acquisition decisions, we theorize that geographic overlap between the acquirer and potential targets' businesses and operations enables the acquirer to collect more information about the potential target through its multiple business operations that are geographically proximate. We also demonstrate moderating boundary conditions. In particular, we examine acquiring firm characteristics, acquiring firm size and geographic dispersion, which both weaken the relationship between geographic overlap and acquisition pairing. Likewise, we examine two dyadic distance moderators, geographic distance and product dissimilarity, both of which increase information asymmetry between the acquirer and potential targets, which increases the effect of geographic overlap in facilitating acquisition pairing. Managerial summary: Firms pursuing acquisition activities face severe information asymmetry when evaluating potential targets. This study investigates how acquiring firms leverage geographic conditions to overcome information asymmetry and choose targets that they can better evaluate. We find that acquirers are more likely to choose targets that have subsidiaries or business operations overlapping in the same states as the acquirers themselves. This is particularly true for small acquirers, which lack resources and capabilities to seek external assistance, and acquirers that have business operations in more concentrated locations. We also find that acquiring targets with geographically overlapped business operations is especially salient when the target's headquarters is distantly located from the acquirer or when the target offers dissimilar products from the acquirer.]

A Market-Based Funding Liquidity Measure

The Review of Asset Pricing Studies 2019 9(2), 356-393
Abstract We construct a traded funding liquidity measure from stock returns. Guided by a model, we extract the measure as the return spread between two beta-neutral portfolios constructed using stocks with high and low margins, to control for their sensitivity to the aggregate funding shocks. Our measure of funding liquidity is correlated with other funding liquidity proxies. It delivers a positive risk premium that cannot be explained by existing risk factors. A model augmented by our funding liquidity measure has superior pricing performance for various portfolios. Despite evident comovement, this measure contains additional information that is not subsumed by market liquidity. Received March 29, 2017; accepted August 8, 2018 by Editor Wayne Ferson.

Seeing the Unobservable from the Invisible: The Role of CO2 in Measuring Consumption Risk

Review of Finance 2018 22(3), 977-1009
Abstract In contrast to past studies that assume service flow of durable goods consumption to be a constant fraction of the stock, we study a consumption-based asset pricing model featuring time-varying utilization of durable goods. We propose an innovative measure of the unobserved usage of durable goods from carbon dioxide emissions. We find that the time-varying utilization of durable goods is a valid pricing factor. Our model exhibits a stronger cross-sectional pricing power than several consumption-based capital asset pricing models, including Yogo’s (2006) durable goods model. Finally, our model mitigates the joint risk premium and implied risk-free rate puzzle.

Slow diffusion of information and price momentum in stocks: Evidence from options markets

Journal of Banking & Finance 2017 75, 98-108 open access
This paper investigates the source of price momentum in the stock market using information from options markets. We provide direct evidence of the gradual information diffusion model in Hong and Stein (1999): momentum profits are larger for stocks whose information diffuses slowly into the stock market. We exploit the options markets to identify stocks with slow information diffusion speed. As informed traders trade options to realize the information that has not been fully incorporated in the stock price, we are able to enhance the momentum strategy by selecting winner/loser stocks with high growth/large drop in call option implied volatility. Our empirical strategy generates a risk-adjusted alpha of 1.8% per month over the 1996–2011 period, during which the simple momentum strategy fails to perform. The results are robust to the impact of earnings announcement, transaction costs, industry concentration, and choice of options’ moneyness and time-to-maturity. Finally, our finding is not driven by existing stock- or option-related characteristics that are known to improve momentum.

Investor Sentiment and the Pricing of Macro Risks for Hedge Funds

Management Science 2025 71(2), 1623-1645
Hedge funds with larger macroeconomic-risk betas do not earn higher returns, in contrast to the theoretically predicted risk-return trade-off. Meanwhile, high macro-beta funds deliver higher returns than low macro-beta funds following a low-sentiment period, whereas the risk-return relation is flat following a high-sentiment period. We show that the sophisticated management of hedge funds explains this pattern. The relation between funds’ macro-risk betas and the timing abilities/investor flows is sentiment dependent, and such variation likely drives the contrasting beta-return trade-offs after high- and low-sentiment periods. A similar pattern is also observed in mutual funds. This paper was accepted by Lin William Cong, finance. Funding: X. Zhu acknowledges financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grant 72203035] and the Ministry of Education Project of Humanities and Social Sciences [Grant 22YJC790194]. Z. Chen acknowledges financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grant 72222004] and Tsinghua University [Grant 20225080020]. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.02792 .

The financing of local government in China: Stimulus loan wanes and shadow banking waxes

Journal of Financial Economics 2020 137(1), 42-71
The upsurge of shadow banking is typically driven by rising financing demand from certain real sectors. In China, the 4 trillion yuan stimulus package in 2009 was behind the rapid growth of shadow banking after 2012, expediting the development of Chinese corporate bond markets in the poststimulus period. Chinese local governments financed the stimulus through bank loans in 2009 and then resorted to nonbank debt financing after 2012 when faced with rollover pressure from bank debt coming due. Cross-sectionally, using a political-economy-based instrument, we show that provinces with greater bank loan growth in 2009 experienced more municipal corporate bond issuance during 2012–2015, together with more shadow banking activities including trustloans and wealth management products. China’s poststimulus experience exhibits similarities to financial market development during the US National Banking Era.

A Performance Comparison of Large-n Factor Estimators

The Review of Asset Pricing Studies 2018 8(1), 153-182
We evaluate the performance of various methods for estimating factor returns in an approximate factor model. Differences across estimators are most pronounced when there is cross-sectional heteroscedasticity or when cross-sectional sample sizes, n, have fewer than 4,000 assets. Estimators incorporating either cross-sectional or time-series heteroscedasticity outperform the other estimators when those types of heteroscedasticity are present. The differences are most pronounced when the cross-sectional sample is small. Received December 2, 2015; editorial decision May 16, 2017 by Editor Jeffrey Pontiff.

Which patents to use as loan collaterals? The role of newness of patents' external technology linkage

Strategic Management Journal 2021 42(10), 1822-1849
Abstract Research Summary Patent collateral is an important aspect in the debt financing of firms. We argue that in accepting patent collaterals, lenders need to balance between risk of obsolescence and risk of unverified external inventions, both of which are related to patents' external technology linkage. Patents linked to old external inventions are subject to risk of obsolescence while patents linked to too new external inventions are subject to risk of unverified external inventions, and therefore we propose patents linked to moderately new external inventions are more likely to be pledged. We further propose the turning point of this curvilinear relationship depends on borrowing firms' attributes: firm‐specificity of their patent assets and their technological specialization domains. Using data on 107,180 U.S. semiconductor patents, our results support these propositions. Managerial Summary Patent collateralization represents an important innovation in the debt market. Then, how to choose appropriate patents as collaterals is an important question for patenting firms and financial institutions accepting patents as collaterals. Our results suggest that patents linked to old external inventions are less likely to be pledged because such patents may become obsolete soon, patents linked to too new external inventions are also less likely to be pledged because such patents may be deemed too risky, and patents linked to moderately new external inventions are more likely to pledged. We further find that lenders' concerns on risk of unverified external inventions become more salient if borrowing firms' inventions are more firm‐specific but become less so if borrowing firms specialize in the patents' technological domains.

Pledgeability and Asset Prices: Evidence from the Chinese Corporate Bond Markets

Journal of Finance 2023 78(5), 2563-2620 open access
ABSTRACT We provide causal evidence on the value of asset pledgeability by exploiting a unique feature of Chinese corporate bond markets: bonds with identical fundamentals are traded on two segmented markets with different rules for repo transactions. Using a policy shock that rendered AA+ and AA bonds ineligible for repo on one market only, we compare how bond prices changed across markets and rating classes around this event. When the haircut increases from 0% to 100%, bond yields increase by 39 bps to 85 bps. These estimates help us infer the magnitude of the shadow cost of capital in China.