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A Simple Model of Capital Market Equilibrium with Incomplete Information

Journal of Finance 1987
The sphere of modern financial economics encompases finance, micro investment theory and much of the economics of uncertainty.As is evident from its influence on other branches of economics including public finance, industrial organization and monetary theory, the boundaries of this sphere are both permeable and flexible.The complex interactions of time and uncertainty guarantee intellectual challenge and intrinsic excitement to the study of financial economics.Indeed, the mathematics of the subject contain some of the most interesting applications of probability and optimization theory.But for all its mathematical refinement, the research has nevertheless had a direct and significant influence on practice.It was not always thus.Thirty years ago, finance theory was little more than a collection of anecdotes, rules of thumb, and manipulations of accounting data with an almost exclusive focus on corporate financial management.There is no need in this meeting of the guild to recount the subsequent evolution from this conceptual potpourri to a rigorous economic theory subjected to systematic empirical examination.1 Nor is there a need III -2on this occasion to document the wide-ranging impact of the research on 2 finance practice.I simply note that the conjoining of intrinsic intellectual interest with extrinsic application is a prevailing theme of research in financial economics.The later stages of this successful evolution has however been marked by a substantial accumulation of empirical anomalies; discoveries of theoretical inconsistencies; and a well-founded concern about the statistical power of many of the test methodologies.3Finance, thus finds itself today in the seemingly-paradoxical position of having more questions and empirical puzzles than at the start of its modern development.To be sure, some of the empirical anomalies will eventually be shown to be mere statistical artifacts.However, just as surely, others will not be so easily dismissed.I see this new-found ignorance in finance as mostly of the useful type that reflects our "...express recognition of what is not yet known, but needs to be known in order to lay the foundation for still more knowledge." 5Anomalous empirical evidence has indeed stimulated wide-ranging research efforts to make explicit the theoretical and empirical limitations of the basic finance model with its frictionless markets, complete information, and rational, optimizing economic behavior.Although much has been done, this research line is far from closure.Some hold that the paradigm of rational and optimal behavior must be largely discarded if knowledge in finance is to significantly advance.Others believe that most of the important empirical anomalies surrounding the current theory can be resolved within that traditional paradigm.Whichever view emerges as the dominant theme in finance, our understanding of the subject promises to be greatly enriched by these research programs.

Growth Opportunities and Risk‐Taking by Financial Intermediaries

Journal of Finance 1987 42(3), 583-599
We show that growth opportunities which cannot be converted to cash under conditions of financial distress are a critical determinant of an intermediary's choice of risk. Financial institutions in which is a low proportion of total assets will be much more likely to engage in go‐for‐broke behavior. The model leads to a reevaluation of the effectiveness of several traditional remedies for dealing with banks that take excessive risks such as raising insurance premiums, intervening before capital is depleted, and restricting investment options. The model also has implications about a new approach to the examination of financial intermediaries.

An Empirical Investigation of the Market for Comex Gold Futures Options

Journal of Finance 1987 42(5), 1187-1194
Option‐pricing models that assume a constant interest rate may misprice futures options if the interest rate fluctuates significantly or if the price of the underlying asset is correlated with the interest rate. The futures option‐pricing model of Ramaswamy and Sundaresan allows for a stochastic interest rate and correlation of the underlying asset's price with the interest rate. Using a data set of daily closing prices for Comex gold futures options, this paper tests the Ramaswamy and Sundaresan model against a constant interest rate model. Results indicate that the stochastic interest rate model is a superior predictor of market prices.

Orthogonal Frontiers and Alternative Mean‐Variance Efficiency Tests

Journal of Finance 1987 42(3), 601-619
This paper catalogues properties of minimum norm orthogonal portfolios: portfolios which minimize a quadratic objective function and have returns uncorrelated with those of a candidate portfolio that is not mean‐variance efficient. The analysis shows that the dollar versions of these portfolios correspond to estimators of zero beta rates based on alternative statistical criteria and grouping procedures while costless orthogonal portfolios represent candidate mean‐variance efficiency tests. It also develops inference procedures for zero and unit net investment portfolios of individual securities (instead of grouped portfolios) that have zero expected betas. The resulting mean‐variance efficiency tests are reasonably insensitive to the underlying statistical assumptions.

A Model of Intertemporal Discount Rates in the Presence of Real and Inflationary Autocorrelations

Journal of Finance 1987 42(4), 1049-1070
This paper discusses the pricing of assets in an intertemporal rational‐expectations model when real production and inflation evolve according to first‐order autocorrelated processes. The focus is on the structure of the various intertemporal discount rates (yields) exhibited by this economy. Yield curves are identified for consumption claims, indexed bonds, and nominally riskless bonds and can be extended to any claim that can be approximated by a (finite) linear combination of such securities. The model demonstrates that, if the average term structure for nominally riskless securities is upward sloping, then the yield curve for consumption (market) claims is downward sloping, suggesting that conventional methods for computing long‐term discount rates err by not accounting for maturity factors. The paper also explores the relationship between the intertemporal equilibrium and its embedded single‐period equilibria. The single‐period risk measures in this economy are derived and shown to be (generally) functions of maturity. A model of nominal bond betas is constructed along these lines. It is shown that bond betas that are increasing functions of maturity do not necessarily imply an upward‐sloping term structure.

Off‐Board Trading of NYSE‐Listed Stocks: The Effects of Deregulation and the National Market System

Journal of Finance 1987 42(5), 1331-1345
An econometric time‐series model of off‐board trading of NYSE‐listed stocks shows that high NYSE commission rates were an incentive for third‐market trading but that trading on the regional exchanges, which is most of the off‐board trading, has been affected very little by commissions or their deregulation. The effects of some changes in the trading organization and rules are estimated, including several that are part of the emerging National Market System. The estimates imply that the NMS has increased competition for the NYSE, as Congress intended, and has prompted the NYSE to improve its performance to retain market share.

Expectations of Exchange Rates and Differential Inflation Rates: Further Evidence on Purchasing Power Parity in Efficient Markets

Journal of Finance 1987 42(1), 69
The paper tests the null hypothesis of ex ante purchasing power parity. The empirical evidence obtained is inconsistent with the null for major industrialized countries over the current floating exchange rate regime. Expected nominal exchange rate changes appear to deviate systematically from expected inflation rate differentials over the same holding period even though real exchange rate changes appear to be serially uncorrelated. This supports the presence of time-varying risk premia in foreign exchange markets and real determinants of exchange rate movements as suggested by equilibrium theories of international asset markets.

Orthogonal Frontiers and Alternative Mean-Variance Efficiency Tests

Journal of Finance 1987 42(3), 601
This paper catalogues properties of minimum norm orthogonal portfolios: portfolios which minimize a quadratic objective function and have returns uncorrelated with those of a candidate portfolio that is not mean-variance efficient. The analysis shows that the dollar versions of these portfolios correspond to estimators of zero beta rates based on alternative statistical criteria and grouping procedures while costless orthogonal portfolios represent candidate mean-variance efficiency tests. It also develops inference procedures for zero and unit net investment portfolios of individual securities (instead of grouped portfolios) that have zero expected betas. The resulting mean-variance efficiency tests are reasonably insensitive to the underlying statistical assumptions.